Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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I think we've seen technology take a tumble a number of times and come right back. Most professional money managers look at a technology slump as a buying opportunity.
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Ordinarily, we would have a technical bounce at this level. But then the question is, have you seen a bear market bottom? I don't know if we have at this point.
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You have to be careful about prejudging this - I've seen so many investors burned at the stake thinking things like 'Value is about to come back,' ... Let the market tell you what to do. Don't tell the market what to do.
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The truth is with Harley-Davidson, like a lot of other companies, like Wal-Mart and Target, we've seen ongoing, strong demand, ... Harley-Davidson's production has had to ramp up 15 percent per year for the last 10 years. That's pretty impressive and it's all been done to meet that ongoing demand.
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I think we're going to edge our way higher but I don't think it's going to be a barn burning.
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I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the momentum of the market remains positive, but it's starting to slow.
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Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).
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Large is the place to be. The market has been rewarding investors in large cap, and rewarding investors on a relative basis in mid cap, but quite frankly, it is an on-again/off-again type of thing with the small cap, and the small cap is not a place to go. The market is not signaling to me that you should play it on the small cap side, mid cap is fine, large cap is definitely the place to be.
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We got down too far too fast. You reach a level that attracts buyers.
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On the surface level it's a real simple story. Interest rates are rising and the outlook for the economy and earnings is darkening every step of the way.
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Really they're companies with consistent price performance, ... In other words, it's better than the S&P and consistent earnings performance.
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I tell my clients to look at the market once a week. It does a lot for your judgment if you take away the day-to-day swings.