Hugh Johnson

Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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The markets are moving to more reasonably reflect expectations for what lies ahead in 2005.
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Mutual funds are clearly a very big reason why the stock market is declining, ... This is the other side of the mountain.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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Almost every quarter I can remember people have come up with reasons to explain away earnings gains. The truth is that earnings are doing better, and the hope is that, because earnings are improving, companies will begin to hire and spend money on technology.
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It's a reasonably accepted conclusion that the Fed will raise rates in both June and August; that's what the market has discounted. I don't know if Friday's employment report will change that, no matter what it says.
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I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.
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Ordinarily you would expect the stock market to rise or do better, but it's not, and I think the reason it's not is it's being held in check by high oil prices.
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I like the large-cap technology names. Over a three- to five-year period they are going to be real winners.
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Speaking of financial markets as a whole --stocks, bonds and the dollar -- 'volatile' is not strong enough a word to describe them.
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Like any indicator, whether it's the Super Bowl or anything else, it's sometimes right and sometimes wrong. It's just not very rational to conclude that if January is a bad month, the market will have a bad year.
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Everything is connected but it is anyone's guess how long the phenomena will continue.
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The fundamental premise in this business is you cannot be stuck in this business. You can buy stocks for the long haul, but if the market breaks down, you're going to suffer. You're going to pay for it.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the M&A activity is certainly the headline, with Oracle-PeopleSoft and a hangover of Sprint-Nextel,