Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
inevitable market skepticism
I think the market has managed the inevitable profit-taking very well, but there's still a lot of skepticism out there,
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It's a trading rally, and not much more than that. If there's anything you can hang your hat on, it's that with every passing day, some investors become convinced that there's not going to be any serious fallout or damage to the economy or earnings due to the hurricanes.
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Investors become very guarded at the point that they think oil prices could take a chunk out of economic growth,
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It injects some uncertainty. The worry is the Chinese economy will slow too much, and that will send markets down worldwide.
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I think it's a bygone conclusion that they will raise rates in January, but there's also debate about whether they'll raise rates in March.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the M&A activity is certainly the headline, with Oracle-PeopleSoft and a hangover of Sprint-Nextel,
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Their (Exxon's) profits were very strong, and December personal income was higher than forecast.
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The truth is with Harley-Davidson, like a lot of other companies, like Wal-Mart and Target, we've seen ongoing, strong demand, ... Harley-Davidson's production has had to ramp up 15 percent per year for the last 10 years. That's pretty impressive and it's all been done to meet that ongoing demand.
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You know, we had four great years because we had declining inflation and interest rates. There's been a sea change. We now have inflation and interest rates actually heading higher. That makes things entirely different - you can't get away with high-priced earnings or overvalued stocks and so we're going through this adjustment to a new reality.
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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We got down too far too fast. You reach a level that attracts buyers.
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You have to be careful about prejudging this - I've seen so many investors burned at the stake thinking things like 'Value is about to come back,' ... Let the market tell you what to do. Don't tell the market what to do.
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We're moving beyond that -- the market's almost immune to the scandals now.