Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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The combination of a decline in oil prices, however slight, and some fairly upbeat comments (by Fed officials), may have led Fed watchers to conclude the Fed may raise interest rates at its meeting in May, and then stop.
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On the surface level it's a real simple story. Interest rates are rising and the outlook for the economy and earnings is darkening every step of the way.
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You won't know for a couple of weeks. History says they (the Fed) need to cut rates more than one time but I am encouraged.
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The biggest risk in 2006 is that the Fed will be seduced by worries about inflation into raising rates too high. A lot depends on what the 10-year does and while I would hope that they would take notice that it's going down in yield, the question is whether they will take it seriously or dismiss it.
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Is the possibility of a tax cut and a rate cut enough to eliminate or neutralized the concerns about the economy and earnings, letting the January effect play out, ... Watch the overall market and if the shift from defensive stocks to economically-sensitive stocks continues, it may be enough to turn the tide.
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Something has got to give, ... Crude prices will have to come down or there will have to be some assurance on interest rates before the market will be energized.
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I think it's a bygone conclusion that they will raise rates in January, but there's also debate about whether they'll raise rates in March.
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I don't think it changes anything for Federal Reserve policy. Various early warning signs of inflation are still telling us they have to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and they are likely to do so when they meet next week.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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Long term interest rates are higher now than they were in the second and third quarters, and debt levels are higher too. Yes, consumer spending will continue to expand, but it will be slower.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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The rise in oil prices and concern over the Fed's interest rate policy are very troubling to the market. That's going to present a challenge to this rally.
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After seeing these reports, it's likely the Fed will...raise rates at the measured pace the market is used to.
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The worry is that the lid, or the cap, on interest rates is now off.