Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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If there are lots of other signals of appending recession, take it seriously. But don't hang your hat on the yield curve.
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There will be some early applause from Wall Street, but it will be subdued because there is a long road ahead. It does not signal the end of terrorist attacks both around the world and in the United States.
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I don't think it changes anything for Federal Reserve policy. Various early warning signs of inflation are still telling us they have to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and they are likely to do so when they meet next week.
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That was a signal that we were headed toward distress.
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One of the most important signs of a bull market is when the bull market manages very, very bad news like we've had today. So in that sense, you've got a very encouraging performance today.
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Individuals are buying stock with the idea that it will become even more overvalued. That's a sign of speculation.
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I like the large-cap technology names. Over a three- to five-year period they are going to be real winners.
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Speaking of financial markets as a whole --stocks, bonds and the dollar -- 'volatile' is not strong enough a word to describe them.
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Like any indicator, whether it's the Super Bowl or anything else, it's sometimes right and sometimes wrong. It's just not very rational to conclude that if January is a bad month, the market will have a bad year.
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Everything is connected but it is anyone's guess how long the phenomena will continue.
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The fundamental premise in this business is you cannot be stuck in this business. You can buy stocks for the long haul, but if the market breaks down, you're going to suffer. You're going to pay for it.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the M&A activity is certainly the headline, with Oracle-PeopleSoft and a hangover of Sprint-Nextel,
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Their (Exxon's) profits were very strong, and December personal income was higher than forecast.