Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
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We're certainly on solid footing on an economic front.
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We're still getting more negatives on the economic front today, and this is a period where we're really looking for economic growth to avoid a Fed rate cut.
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Right now, we have this positive confluence of earnings and economic news that has been propelling the market.
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This lends some comfort to the situation. In spite of slight economic weakness, the Fed sees no need to change its strategy. It's also not going to shut down the economy too quickly.
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Any number Wal-Mart gives is tantamount to an economic indicator,
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I would infer from the statement that the Fed is somewhat more sanguine on the economic recovery. Perhaps they believe that $55 oil prices are, at least for the time being, something of the past and that jobs are just improving at a moderate pace.
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The bond market is still behind the inflation curve. The inflation story continues to chip away at our economy and it doesn't seem to be getting any weaker.
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Economists are expecting a gradual slowdown in economic growth paired with a slowdown in inflation. That will allow the Federal Reserve to wind up its rate-hiking campaign.
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We have some very ugly numbers. You can argue that the ISM is still backward looking, and maybe even the jobless claims, but eventually we're going to need some evidence that the economy is improving. We had a lot of enthusiasm coming from earnings, but the news today is a little bit of a slap in the face that we're not out of the woods yet.
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Over the last four years the Fed has played the part of a surrealistic painter, creating a dreamy backdrop with generously low interest rates.
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Maybe now there's enough fear out there to form a base to rally again.
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When you have strong growth and low wages, the chief beneficiary is corporate America.
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We've come off a phenomenal July. And we've seen a real reversal in the stocks that were leading the market, with economically-sensitive names doing well.
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The projected job growth number would mark a pretty strong snapback from the previous month.