Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
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We have some very ugly numbers. You can argue that the ISM is still backward looking, and maybe even the jobless claims, but eventually we're going to need some evidence that the economy is improving. We had a lot of enthusiasm coming from earnings, but the news today is a little bit of a slap in the face that we're not out of the woods yet.
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The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
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People are taking some comfort in results and a feeling that the economy is getting better, but there's still some caution. We need to see more evidence of a sustainable recovery. We need companies to start seeing profits more through top-line growth than just cost-cutting measures.
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Confidence is slipping, manufacturing is slowing, and even with today's jobs report, the employment trend is still negative. The bet here is that the Federal Reserve will have to stop raising rates in order to keep the economy from sliding further.
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This lends some comfort to the situation. In spite of slight economic weakness, the Fed sees no need to change its strategy. It's also not going to shut down the economy too quickly.
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I would not expect investors and traders to make any big bets ahead of the number tomorrow. It clues us in on growth in the economy but also inflation.
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The bond market is still behind the inflation curve. The inflation story continues to chip away at our economy and it doesn't seem to be getting any weaker.
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We're certainly on solid footing on an economic front.
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Over the last four years the Fed has played the part of a surrealistic painter, creating a dreamy backdrop with generously low interest rates.
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Maybe now there's enough fear out there to form a base to rally again.
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When you have strong growth and low wages, the chief beneficiary is corporate America.
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We've come off a phenomenal July. And we've seen a real reversal in the stocks that were leading the market, with economically-sensitive names doing well.
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The projected job growth number would mark a pretty strong snapback from the previous month.
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Traders found some weakness in the factory orders in the ISM report after digging around.