Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
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I don't view the market as risky or dangerous even in spite of more Fed tightening. We have enough value in U.S. and international growth stocks. What's holding stocks back right now is uncertainty about interest rates, not valuation.
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Accounting concerns continue to dominate the market. We're going to be seeing this 'Prove it to me' investing for a while.
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Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,
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The world assumes the Fed will raise the rates by a quarter percentage point, that's a non-event. It's what the statement lays out about the pace of future rate hikes that will be important, because that's what people are thinking about. I think the inflation reports will also be pivotal next week.
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Investors have their rally caps on for year end, and we're doing it with speculation. With a good inflation report and strong growth, it seems to be the perfect elixir for Wall Street.
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If there is anything more than 250,000 jobs then everything reverses and all bets about a pause at 3.25 percent are off,
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The GDP upgrade could put more pressure on the Fed. At the same time, we're losing ground with the consumer... From the perspective of today's market, it's a one-two punch.
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Over the last four years the Fed has played the part of a surrealistic painter, creating a dreamy backdrop with generously low interest rates.
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Gold is creating a psychological dark cloud over the market. With gold on the upside and inflation fears, the numbers we get tomorrow will clarify some of these concerns.
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Any number Wal-Mart gives is tantamount to an economic indicator,
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Confidence is slipping, manufacturing is slowing, and even with today's jobs report, the employment trend is still negative. The bet here is that the Federal Reserve will have to stop raising rates in order to keep the economy from sliding further.
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For the fee-based deal business, it's still a favorable environment. But they also have a huge consumer credit exposure.
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This deal makes sense for both companies. Bank of New York has been expanding in the custodial business and doing a fine job. This shift out of distribution is an ideal fit for J.P. Morgan.
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I would not expect investors and traders to make any big bets ahead of the number tomorrow. It clues us in on growth in the economy but also inflation.