Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernsteinis a Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden in the Obama Administration. Bernstein's appointment was considered to represent a progressive perspective and "to provide a strong advocate for workers"...
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You need to create ever more jobs in order to absorb increases in the labor force as well as productivity gains.
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This is a pretty negative report. The reason unemployment ticked down is the labor force contracted. That suggests fewer people are getting into the game, looking for work, and that kind of discouragement can lead to a lower unemployment rate.
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This is a tremendously detailed, comprehensive look at the American family's balance sheet and it ain't pretty.
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This isn't an administration that wakes up and says 'what can we do for the working class family today,'
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One good month based on a swing in the C.P.I. does nothing to change this negative trajectory.
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A number of other reports suggest the labor market is finally hitting its stride, one weekly claims number is not enough to undermine that conclusion.
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Any large fall in labor force participation at this point suggests that the labor market is not growing out of recession, but rather that discouraged job seekers are giving up, or not beginning, their job search.
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The weakness in the labor market is clearly reducing the growth of earnings, meaning consumers, most of who depend on their paychecks, are likely to remain insecure about where the economy is headed. This in turn has the potential to constrain consumption growth, limiting the boost that the economy will get from the recent tax cut, and delaying the arrival of a truly self-sustaining recovery.
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This could mean that the labor market is another area coming on line in the nation's recovery.
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This doesn't look like a significantly different report than we've gotten in past months, but that's significant in itself. The labor market is clearly stuck in neutral.
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We are in the midst of a protracted wage slump, ... a troubling trend that is largely going unnoticed by policymakers.
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It's a mistake to think that any increase in wages is inflationary and there is substantial room for non-inflationary wage growth, particularly at the bottom end of the scale.
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With stagnant hourly wages, the only way for working families to get ahead is by working more hours, ... certainly not the path to improving living standards that we'd expect in an economy posting strong productivity gains.
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Where you see immigration competition play out most clearly is among high school dropouts. I'd say there's clearly immigrant competition among the least-skilled workers, but natives are a shrinking share while immigrants are a growing share.