Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernstein
Jared Bernsteinis a Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. From 2009 to 2011, Bernstein was the Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden in the Obama Administration. Bernstein's appointment was considered to represent a progressive perspective and "to provide a strong advocate for workers"...
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My problem with the Bush plan is that it's so ideologically problematic that now these guys are going to have to argue about it for a month or two. That's bad because we need to inject stimulus into the economy quickly.
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Given the growth of the population and labor force and improvements in productivity, we need to be adding somewhere in the neighborhood of 150,000 jobs per month to nudge unemployment down.
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There were close to 200,000 jobs cut in the past couple of months, making them the worst two months of last year. The jobless recovery is not only lingering, it's deepening.
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The job market is slowly tightening. We are wringing out the slack. But we're only six months into a process that could take a year and a half.
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One good month based on a swing in the C.P.I. does nothing to change this negative trajectory.
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Our expectations have been pretty diminished. A good month used to be 300,000 more jobs and now it is 200,000.
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Clearly, Katrina hasn't shown up in the jobless claims yet, but it will, ... Next month, we're going to be looking at one of the largest one month negative spikes in the history of this series, going back to the '30s.
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I'm more optimistic than I was a month and a half ago,
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The weakness in the labor market is clearly reducing the growth of earnings, meaning consumers, most of who depend on their paychecks, are likely to remain insecure about where the economy is headed. This in turn has the potential to constrain consumption growth, limiting the boost that the economy will get from the recent tax cut, and delaying the arrival of a truly self-sustaining recovery.
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You need to create ever more jobs in order to absorb increases in the labor force as well as productivity gains.
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Explaining the unique characteristics of this unbalanced recovery is more like 'Murder on the Orient Express' than finding a smoking gun in somebody's hands. There are a lot of suspects.
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The economy's doing fine, except if you figure in working families, ... We're posting great numbers in aggregate demand, yet the lousiest on record for wage growth.
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The economy's doing fine, except if you figure in working families. We're posting great numbers in aggregate demand, yet the lousiest on record for wage growth.
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It's one thing to run faster in place when the rest of the economy is stagnating as well. But it cuts a little deeper when policymakers are telling you the economy is fine, and you are falling behind.