Jason Schenker
Jason Schenker
caused expected factors higher likely market next prices volatility year
Prices went a lot higher than most of us expected a year ago. The factors that caused prices to surge aren't likely to go away next year. The volatility of the market may even increase.
due energy following higher last next risk suit upside week
After the PPI bounced last week due to higher energy costs, there is a big risk of the CPI following suit next week. There is significant upside risk there.
behavior changing consumer despite energy high hold relatively spending
Despite high energy prices, consumer spending will hold up relatively well. Consumer behavior is not changing a lot.
economic katrina number resilience robust service shown survey wake
The ISM service survey joins a number of economic indicators that have shown robust economic resilience in the wake of Katrina and Rita,
health likely near overall
In the near term, the overall health of inventories is likely to be important.
held prices worries
Prices are being held up by worries about gasoline.
above justify prices production remain tough
If prices remain above 60 dollars, it will be tough for OPEC to justify a production cut.
companies oil profit stand
The companies stand to do some profit because the oil is already there. All they have to do is take it off the ground.
employment ill
The employment index, however, declined. This could bode ill for October's payrolls.
anticipate bubble homes
If there were a lot of homes in inventory, we could anticipate a bubble bursting, but there isn't,
consuming countries energy moving power shocks supply
Geopolitical power is moving from energy consuming countries to the producers. We may see more of these supply shocks in the years ahead.
accurately captures couple hope market months
After a couple of months of overestimating, we redid our modeling. We hope this more accurately captures what's going on in the market place.
sector seems solid
The manufacturing sector seems to be on a very solid footing.
disruption few nigerian past physical prices supply
The tangible, physical disruption of Nigerian supply has propped up prices over the past few weeks.