Jay Bryson
Jay Bryson
spend
It's not just China, it's not just oil. We spend more than we produce, end of story.
exports grow imports large oil tall throw top twice
Imports are about twice as large as exports, so just to stabilize the deficit, exports have to grow twice as fast. That's a pretty tall order. Then you throw oil on top of it.
insurance outlook remains
The insurance payments are going to go away. The outlook remains very bleak.
none others showing
I look at all these other indicators and say none of the others are showing recession. If he's going to make a mistake, it's going to be on being too hawkish.
companies environment good rate rates rising
In general, a rising rate environment slows down growth, so most companies are not going to go as good as when rates are low.
fed impact likely march taken
The March CPI data, taken in isolation, likely will have very little impact on near-term Fed policy,
fed looking resources stretched
That's something that the Fed has signaled it is looking at right now with resources getting stretched in the economy.
account china current deficit external financing large means overall rather requires spends trade
If there is an 'issue' with the US external accounts, it is not the bilateral trade deficit with China but rather the overall deficit that the US incurs. After all, the large current account deficit means that the US spends more than it produces, which requires financing from abroad.
account adding correct deficit fed reasons slow
The only thing that the Fed can do to correct the current- account imbalance is to slow the U.S. economy. If you are adding up reasons for why the Fed will keep on tightening, the current-account deficit is on that list.