John Davidson
John Davidson
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If stocks keep deteriorating and the Fed were to cut rates in a coordinated response with the Bank of England, you could see some short-term positive response,
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We've had the same Fed chairman for so many years that we have a standard. He represents an unknown, to an extent.
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In recent years, the Fed has made a real attempt to be transparent, ... If they are going to change direction, they are going to signal it first.
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I'm looking for a recovery in the economy in the second half of the year, contingent on a continued aggressive Fed and a tax cut. I see a consumer-led recovery in the second half and that will help give us an earnings boost.
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The Federal Reserve's objective is two fold -- price stability and employment growth. All too often we think it's the Fed chairman's job to manage the stock market, when it's not.
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I think we'll close the year in positive territory. But in the next few weeks you're going to see the market in a continued struggle back and forth with people trying to determine whether we have a full economic recovery, even with the labor market struggling.
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I think we have continued volatility until we really see signs of growth in the economy slowing. When we see the economy slowing, I think that people will be more comfortable with the fact that maybe Greenspan is not going to have to continue to raise rates, then I think the market can move ahead.
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I think that overall we are in for a pretty good earnings quarter, and that may be a positive for stocks.
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I think we will have a positive year.
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I think what's going to be key going forward will be the tradeoff (in the economic news) between the statistics on employment and statistics on inflation.
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I think there's also bound to be a lot of hesitation until the election is over,
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Largely people are taking a look at historic information. They're looking at earnings and job cuts, and people are concerned. I think we're going to grind it out until earnings come back.
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Our special favorite, however, is IKOS, ... because it is coming out with a drug that will be similar to Viagra.
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I think I'm probably in the minority that thinks that Greenspan may raise rates on Tuesday. I think the real case is a fact that the labor market is really tight and commodity prices have really increased.