John Davidson
John Davidson
case commodity fact greenspan labor market minority prices raise rates thinks tight
I think I'm probably in the minority that thinks that Greenspan may raise rates on Tuesday. I think the real case is a fact that the labor market is really tight and commodity prices have really increased.
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Some of that risk has been taken off the table. That can be seen in the falling price of oil and a rise in equities.
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You've seen how OPEC has had some discipline, and that's helped to support the price of oil, and maybe the gold players are seeing that if they use some discipline as well that that may also affect the gold price and their business.
economic market oil prices reacting rise
The market is reacting to the rise in oil prices and the conflicting economic news.
employment federal fold job manage objective price stability stock
The Federal Reserve's objective is two fold -- price stability and employment growth. All too often we think it's the Fed chairman's job to manage the stock market, when it's not.
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I think we'll close the year in positive territory. But in the next few weeks you're going to see the market in a continued struggle back and forth with people trying to determine whether we have a full economic recovery, even with the labor market struggling.
continued economy fact greenspan growth market maybe move people raise signs until volatility
I think we have continued volatility until we really see signs of growth in the economy slowing. When we see the economy slowing, I think that people will be more comfortable with the fact that maybe Greenspan is not going to have to continue to raise rates, then I think the market can move ahead.
earnings good overall positive
I think that overall we are in for a pretty good earnings quarter, and that may be a positive for stocks.
positive
I think we will have a positive year.
economic employment forward key news statistics
I think what's going to be key going forward will be the tradeoff (in the economic news) between the statistics on employment and statistics on inflation.
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I think there's also bound to be a lot of hesitation until the election is over,
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Largely people are taking a look at historic information. They're looking at earnings and job cuts, and people are concerned. I think we're going to grind it out until earnings come back.
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Our special favorite, however, is IKOS, ... because it is coming out with a drug that will be similar to Viagra.
earnings environment highs interest rates recently support worries year
There are some worries about will the earnings this year support the 2-1/2 year highs that the indexes have recently reached, particularly in an environment where interest rates will be rising.