John Davidson
John Davidson
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The market is reacting to the rise in oil prices and the conflicting economic news.
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The Federal Reserve's objective is two fold -- price stability and employment growth. All too often we think it's the Fed chairman's job to manage the stock market, when it's not.
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I think I'm probably in the minority that thinks that Greenspan may raise rates on Tuesday. I think the real case is a fact that the labor market is really tight and commodity prices have really increased.
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Some of that risk has been taken off the table. That can be seen in the falling price of oil and a rise in equities.
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You've seen how OPEC has had some discipline, and that's helped to support the price of oil, and maybe the gold players are seeing that if they use some discipline as well that that may also affect the gold price and their business.
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There's a lot of earnings and other news out there today, but I think the market is particularly reacting to Greenspan's testimony, ... The markets are expecting a little more growth because of his comments, but that may not be as much as what they wanted to hear.
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If you're out of the market you need to be in the market if you're saving for your long-term retirement or for other elements, ... People have been waiting on the sidelines, not committing as much new money. I don't think you should be investing next week's rent check, but your long-term investment is going to really grow in the market, and technology will lead that.
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I think the fourth quarter will be positive on earnings.
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I think that's a psychological level more than anything else, but what's key is that the jobless claims are climbing.
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He's always given of his time. He's always tried to do the right thing. Going to Italy, I think this thing may become a big story over there if people want to make it a big story. Otherwise, it shouldn't.
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I think we're in a good earnings season. So far, of the S&P 500, 139 companies have reported. Over 60 percent have been upward surprises, only 8 percent of them have really been negative surprises. So we're in a strong earnings season. That's good for the stock market, ... I think the market's in a trading range right now. I don't think it's going straight up from here. I don't think necessarily we're going to get a big summer rally, but maybe a positive tone to the market.
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In this environment, people seem to have gravitated toward natural resources, utilities and materials and away from technology.
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The market has now fully reflected its belief in a second-half pick up, but for the kind of rally we've seen to continue, you're going to need to start seeing evidence. The weekly jobless claims number this morning is a start, but it's not enough. We could be bouncing around in the next few weeks.
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David is very hands-on. He's as much involved in the process as we are.