John Davidson
John Davidson
economic guess market moving people release short tomorrow
Tomorrow is probably one of the more important economic release days. My guess is that as the market started moving up today, people do not want to be short going into those numbers.
betting certain early higher investors likely march month months next prior rates release rise seems throwing towel until
Even just a month ago, prior to the release of the March payrolls number, there were some investors betting that rates wouldn't rise until early next year. Now, after two months of higher payrolls, it seems likely rates are set to rise, and so there's a certain throwing in of the towel for some investors.
economic encouragement finding investors released reports today
Expectations were for improvements in the economic news, but the reports today have surpassed those expectations, so you have investors finding more encouragement than they did in the reports released in mid-to-late November.
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The interesting thing is that they did this on a day when economic information came out that was decidedly weaker than expected. It blunted what could have been a pretty bloody response. The resignations might have been planned for some time, but the fact that they were a secret and were released on exactly this date and at this time turned out to be very effective.
close continued determine economic few forth full labor market next people positive struggle trying weeks whether year
I think we'll close the year in positive territory. But in the next few weeks you're going to see the market in a continued struggle back and forth with people trying to determine whether we have a full economic recovery, even with the labor market struggling.
continued economy fact greenspan growth market maybe move people raise signs until volatility
I think we have continued volatility until we really see signs of growth in the economy slowing. When we see the economy slowing, I think that people will be more comfortable with the fact that maybe Greenspan is not going to have to continue to raise rates, then I think the market can move ahead.
earnings good overall positive
I think that overall we are in for a pretty good earnings quarter, and that may be a positive for stocks.
positive
I think we will have a positive year.
economic employment forward key news statistics
I think what's going to be key going forward will be the tradeoff (in the economic news) between the statistics on employment and statistics on inflation.
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I think there's also bound to be a lot of hesitation until the election is over,
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Largely people are taking a look at historic information. They're looking at earnings and job cuts, and people are concerned. I think we're going to grind it out until earnings come back.
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Our special favorite, however, is IKOS, ... because it is coming out with a drug that will be similar to Viagra.
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I think I'm probably in the minority that thinks that Greenspan may raise rates on Tuesday. I think the real case is a fact that the labor market is really tight and commodity prices have really increased.
earnings environment highs interest rates recently support worries year
There are some worries about will the earnings this year support the 2-1/2 year highs that the indexes have recently reached, particularly in an environment where interest rates will be rising.