John Silvia
John Silvia
corporate fed good news
It's good news for the economy, it's good news for the Fed and it's good news for corporate profits,
adjustment change consumers downward expected gasoline increase overall pace permanent saving spending view
They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.
tough
I think it's way overdue for this administration to get tough on spending,
distort hazardous hiring months patterns school summer timing weather
Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.
iraq negative positive war
In no way is that positive for the administration in the fall. We are going to be in Iraq at the same time. It's war and the (slowing) economy. That has to be negative for the administration.
below care control market price rent sort york
If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.
consensus fed goes neutral position
I would say the consensus is that the Fed goes to a neutral position on inflation.
driving due expected factor good host looking numbers oil optimism people retail sales warmer
I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.
below bounce clearly gains higher impact job month next oil prices reflect slower specific
Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.
appears consumers continue faced gasoline higher spend
It appears as if when consumers are faced with higher gasoline prices, they continue to spend their money,
chairman cited concerns costs greenspan inflation key labor latest outlook
Labor costs were one of the key inflation concerns cited by Chairman (Alan) Greenspan in his latest testimony, ... Our outlook reinforces his concern.
bet gas three
Our bet is that the impact, if there is a lot of damage, will get us $3-per-gallon gas in three weeks.
economic legs quarter recovery
The economic recovery has legs -- those of a pony, not yet a quarter horse.
forward trying
Going forward there is a sense of what are we trying to do here?