John Silvia
John Silvia
america canada coming imported increased latin open supply
If we get increased demand, where is the supply coming from? Is it domestic, or is it imported from Canada, Latin America and Asia? That's still an open question,
behind bond fed market move neutral react risk
If they don't move to a neutral position, the bond market will react negatively. If the Fed sits there and reiterates the same risk on inflation, the bond market is going to look at this and say the Fed is way behind the curve.
ask difficult fed inflation low point question risen seeing trend
What you're seeing is that inflation is rising, ... It's still at a low level, but you know what the trend is. The question to ask is, How much is too much? At what point does the Fed say it's risen enough that we don't want it to go any higher? That's the difficult question to answer.
forward trying
Going forward there is a sense of what are we trying to do here?
growth inflation looks paid pressures prices problem remain suggesting
Growth looks solid. The problem is prices paid were up again, suggesting inflation pressures remain a concern.
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You can no longer make the argument that there is a lot of excess capacity out there. The bias on inflation is a little bit to the upside and the Fed has to be careful about that.
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Firms can't afford to offer much, and workers don't want to threaten to leave because of the job situation.
capital despite explain factory floor goods hiring machines orders putting seem service smart
Firms are substituting capital -- particularly high-tech capital -- for labor. They're putting smart machines on the factory floor and in the service industry. That may explain why high-tech orders for capital goods have been going up, despite the fact that manufacturers don't seem to be hiring a lot of people.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
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The recent decline in crude oil prices took out a little bit of the peak in energy cycle. But the fundamental underlying price is higher than it was a year or six months ago.
adding gone jobs means month per recovery zero
We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
centered continue largely recession signs strongest
The recession was largely centered in the manufacturing sector, and that is where we continue to see the strongest signs of recovery.
central concern growth japan looking news people
There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas; Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.
cash people
There's got to be a lot of people out there with the cash for a deposit.