John Silvia
John Silvia
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This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.
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The evidence so far would suggest we're probably going to have a below-average employment gain in this recovery.
storm
If you get a storm like this every 20 years,
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
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Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
decision driven fed
That's going to be driven by the decision making of the new Fed chairman.
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He'll tackle the issues straight on, here's how I think how we got here, and here's you have to do. It'll be a real challenge to the politicians.
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Home buyers need something visible on-screen to surprise them, ... If it's the dollar gradually losing another 10 percent or mortgage rates creeping up 1 percentage point, that's not going to do it.
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Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
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Manufacturing growth has moderated in recent months, as the cycle moderates despite the hype about the new-found recovery.
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It's good news for the economy, it's good news for the Fed and it's good news for corporate profits,
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I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.
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This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.
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But I don't think a prudent business or household manager can dismiss these energy prices today. We'll have to see what impact this all has on spending, employment plans and the rest.