John Silvia
John Silvia
consensus fed goes neutral position
I would say the consensus is that the Fed goes to a neutral position on inflation.
fed follow jobs reactive
They (the Fed governors) are going to follow the jobs report. They're not going to be proactive. They're going to be reactive to the data,
fed giving labor market means next reason several sit slack tight
That means there is even more slack in the labor market than we had previously thought, giving the Fed even more reason to sit tight for the next several months.
ahead bullet fed good increases inflation market meetings next number payroll
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
bond continue discount fed gains growth higher inflation interest modest raises rates remain rise short traders trend
Inflation gains remain modest but they are gains. This suggests that interest rates will continue to rise as the Fed raises rates at the short end and bond traders discount trend growth and higher inflation at the long end.
corporate fed good news
It's good news for the economy, it's good news for the Fed and it's good news for corporate profits,
change difficult fed goal market point pursuing raising sell
I think the market may sell off if there's no change in statement, ... It'll still be in the same difficult position, and it'll be disappointed that at this point the Fed is still pursuing goal of raising rates.
adjustment change consumers downward expected gasoline increase overall pace permanent saving spending view
They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.
tough
I think it's way overdue for this administration to get tough on spending,
distort hazardous hiring months patterns school summer timing weather
Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.
iraq negative positive war
In no way is that positive for the administration in the fall. We are going to be in Iraq at the same time. It's war and the (slowing) economy. That has to be negative for the administration.
below care control market price rent sort york
If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.
driving due expected factor good host looking numbers oil optimism people retail sales warmer
I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.
below bounce clearly gains higher impact job month next oil prices reflect slower specific
Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.