John Silvia
John Silvia
continue economy foreign interest likely private remains secular securities trend
The secular trend of foreign private interest in U.S. securities is likely to continue as long as the U.S. economy remains strong.
adjusted christmas expected faster people sales signal weaker
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.
economy move neutral
An economy in neutral has started to move forward.
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
played washington
They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.
fed follow jobs reactive
They (the Fed governors) are going to follow the jobs report. They're not going to be proactive. They're going to be reactive to the data,
buy chance figuring last people rates
A lot of people are figuring out the rates are going up and this is their last chance to get in there and buy homes.
although early expect improvement moving perhaps production sector
Although production in the manufacturing sector may be stabilizing, and perhaps even moving higher, it is still too early to expect an improvement in employment.
start strong
This is a surprisingly strong start of the year.
economic employment growth labor recovery relationship time
This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.
defense goods middle quarter spending tends terms
Defense spending tends to be very lumpy in terms of the quarter in which it hits. When you're in the middle of a war, you have to have goods delivered. But even if it had been 3.6, it would still be respectable growth.
decision driven fed
That's going to be driven by the decision making of the new Fed chairman.
continued economic employment gains good interest limited news rising risk supports upside view
This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.