John Silvia
John Silvia
change difficult fed goal market point pursuing raising sell
I think the market may sell off if there's no change in statement, ... It'll still be in the same difficult position, and it'll be disappointed that at this point the Fed is still pursuing goal of raising rates.
confusion create good labor leads policy public sides stories telling useful
It does create a lot confusion and leads to different sides telling different stories -- not useful for making good public policy for the labor market,
consumer economic forecast generating numbers political reflecting sentiment social spending totally
Consumer sentiment numbers are not reflecting economic sentiment, but political or social sentiment. If you were generating an economic forecast of spending from these numbers, you'd be totally wrong.
start strong
This is a surprisingly strong start of the year.
convince difficult high jobs people perceive
If people perceive that all-time high as 'normal,' that's going to make it very difficult to convince them that jobs are plentiful.
employment fewer output producing result sector
Manufacturing output is up, yet employment in the manufacturing sector is down. This result suggests that the firms are producing more in the U.S., but doing it with fewer workers.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
change fed language optimism policy saying signal suspect
I suspect that there's a little optimism that the Fed will signal that they are just about done, that they'll change their language from saying 'further policy firming may be' to saying it 'might be' needed.
economy move neutral
An economy in neutral has started to move forward.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
clearly employment eventually number retail revised several
I think clearly the retail employment number is goofy. I think when that number is revised and we look back several months, we'll eventually see a gain.
defense goods middle quarter spending tends terms
Defense spending tends to be very lumpy in terms of the quarter in which it hits. When you're in the middle of a war, you have to have goods delivered. But even if it had been 3.6, it would still be respectable growth.
capital despite explain factory floor goods hiring machines orders putting seem service smart
Firms are substituting capital -- particularly high-tech capital -- for labor. They're putting smart machines on the factory floor and in the service industry. That may explain why high-tech orders for capital goods have been going up, despite the fact that manufacturers don't seem to be hiring a lot of people.
alone both breaking businesses cause certain changes continue energy fed fight high interest point price psychology raise rates
I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.