John Silvia
John Silvia
driving due expected factor good host looking numbers oil optimism people retail sales warmer
I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.
clearly employment eventually number retail revised several
I think clearly the retail employment number is goofy. I think when that number is revised and we look back several months, we'll eventually see a gain.
avoided bills good high holiday october shock shopping stays sticker warm
We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.
economy fit jobs labor market mold
Today's labor market does not fit the mold of the old models. The economy has recovered, and many of the old jobs are gone.
answer capital kick question spending
The question is often asked: When will capital spending kick in? I answer that it already has.
activity baby betting boomers bubble buy crunch housing increase next resources six value
You have the Baby Boomers having the resources to buy condominiums, betting on the increase in value in the next six months, ... That activity may be the first to feel the crunch if the housing bubble bursts.
consumer definitely employment expect figure filing financing gains half income offset season second slow spending tax wage
We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.
business caution decline employment leisure rising
The decline in retail, leisure and transportation employment suggests rising business caution independent of any short-term storm,
cent currently domestic gross growth nearly per product risks stacked
We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside.
below business companies cycle equipment expected four given less pace past rate software spending three typical
The rate of spending is less than you would have expected given the typical business cycle. Companies have made a lot of money, but if you look at equipment and software spending, this cycle is below the pace of the past three or four cycles.
drag economic expecting flat fourth growth housing quarter second third
We're expecting housing to be flat in the second quarter and a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
companies costs growth increased materials pass people profit raw seeing shouting start surprised worry
I don't think you have to worry about a profit squeeze, but don't be surprised when people start shouting profit growth has peaked. A lot of companies that are seeing increased costs for raw materials will not be able to pass them on to the consumers.
challenge issues straight tackle
He'll tackle the issues straight on, here's how I think how we got here, and here's you have to do. It'll be a real challenge to the politicians.
goal greenspan inflation theme
He'll keep up the Greenspan theme that the Fed's no. 1 goal is to keep inflation under control.