John Silvia
John Silvia
below bounce clearly gains higher impact job month next oil prices reflect slower specific
Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.
appears consumers continue faced gasoline higher spend
It appears as if when consumers are faced with higher gasoline prices, they continue to spend their money,
chairman cited concerns costs greenspan inflation key labor latest outlook
Labor costs were one of the key inflation concerns cited by Chairman (Alan) Greenspan in his latest testimony, ... Our outlook reinforces his concern.
bet gas three
Our bet is that the impact, if there is a lot of damage, will get us $3-per-gallon gas in three weeks.
economic legs quarter recovery
The economic recovery has legs -- those of a pony, not yet a quarter horse.
forward trying
Going forward there is a sense of what are we trying to do here?
fed follow jobs reactive
They (the Fed governors) are going to follow the jobs report. They're not going to be proactive. They're going to be reactive to the data,
below employment gains improve likely months remain sector
Manufacturing sector employment is likely to improve in the months ahead. However, employment gains are likely to remain below par.
centered continue largely recession signs strongest
The recession was largely centered in the manufacturing sector, and that is where we continue to see the strongest signs of recovery.
economy fit jobs labor market mold
Today's labor market does not fit the mold of the old models. The economy has recovered, and many of the old jobs are gone.
drag economic expecting flat fourth growth housing quarter second third
We're expecting housing to be flat in the second quarter and a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
degrees pain
There are varying degrees of pain, but I don't think there are going to be many sectors that are not going to be impacted,
consumer definitely employment expect figure filing financing gains half income offset season second slow spending tax wage
We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.
accounting both consumer due fourth growth katrina outlook quarter slow slower third
The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.