John Silvia
John Silvia
ahead company continues economy looking matter move numbers people problems seeing specific
I think futures are up because people are looking ahead to today's numbers and seeing that this economy continues to move ahead very nicely, no matter what problems a specific company may be reporting.
ahead data growth initial inventory likely orders remains slower stage suggested
As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
ahead bullet fed good increases inflation market meetings next number payroll
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
tough
I think it's way overdue for this administration to get tough on spending,
bet gas three
Our bet is that the impact, if there is a lot of damage, will get us $3-per-gallon gas in three weeks.
alone both breaking businesses cause certain changes continue energy fed fight high interest point price psychology raise rates
I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.
confusion create good labor leads policy public sides stories telling useful
It does create a lot confusion and leads to different sides telling different stories -- not useful for making good public policy for the labor market,
jobs lose time
I think Katrina's put the kibosh on this whole thing. You're going to lose so many jobs. It's going to take time to get this all back up.
jobs lose time
I think Katrina's put the kibosh on this whole thing, ... You're going to lose so many jobs. It's going to take time to get this all back up.
below employment gains improve likely months remain sector
Manufacturing sector employment is likely to improve in the months ahead. However, employment gains are likely to remain below par.
employment fewer output producing result sector
Manufacturing output is up, yet employment in the manufacturing sector is down. This result suggests that the firms are producing more in the U.S., but doing it with fewer workers.
cycle despite growth hype recent
Manufacturing growth has moderated in recent months, as the cycle moderates despite the hype about the new-found recovery.
consensus fed goes neutral position
I would say the consensus is that the Fed goes to a neutral position on inflation.
below bounce clearly gains higher impact job month next oil prices reflect slower specific
Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.