John Silvia
John Silvia
alone both breaking businesses cause certain changes continue energy fed fight high interest point price psychology raise rates
I think if you had $70 oil, and the Fed were to continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, that could cause a problem, ... I think there's a certain breaking point where that the price of energy alone is so high that it changes the psychology of both businesses and consumers. I think $80 would probably break the back.
below bounce clearly gains higher impact job month next oil prices reflect slower specific
Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.
growth inflation looks paid pressures prices problem remain suggesting
Growth looks solid. The problem is prices paid were up again, suggesting inflation pressures remain a concern.
bit crude decline energy higher months oil peak prices recent six took underlying year
The recent decline in crude oil prices took out a little bit of the peak in energy cycle. But the fundamental underlying price is higher than it was a year or six months ago.
consumer employment far housing impact oil price spending stronger wages
Employment and wages are stronger and therefore, consumer spending is stronger. Housing is slowing, but not as much as we would have expected, and the price of oil is so far not having that big an impact on the consumer.
business dismiss employment energy household impact manager plans prices prudent
But I don't think a prudent business or household manager can dismiss these energy prices today. We'll have to see what impact this all has on spending, employment plans and the rest.
below care control market price rent sort york
If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.
tough
I think it's way overdue for this administration to get tough on spending,
bet gas three
Our bet is that the impact, if there is a lot of damage, will get us $3-per-gallon gas in three weeks.
ahead company continues economy looking matter move numbers people problems seeing specific
I think futures are up because people are looking ahead to today's numbers and seeing that this economy continues to move ahead very nicely, no matter what problems a specific company may be reporting.
confusion create good labor leads policy public sides stories telling useful
It does create a lot confusion and leads to different sides telling different stories -- not useful for making good public policy for the labor market,
jobs lose time
I think Katrina's put the kibosh on this whole thing. You're going to lose so many jobs. It's going to take time to get this all back up.
jobs lose time
I think Katrina's put the kibosh on this whole thing, ... You're going to lose so many jobs. It's going to take time to get this all back up.
below employment gains improve likely months remain sector
Manufacturing sector employment is likely to improve in the months ahead. However, employment gains are likely to remain below par.