John Silvia
John Silvia
central concern growth japan looking news people
There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas; Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.
centered continue largely recession signs strongest
The recession was largely centered in the manufacturing sector, and that is where we continue to see the strongest signs of recovery.
adding gone jobs means month per recovery zero
We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
economy fit jobs labor market mold
Today's labor market does not fit the mold of the old models. The economy has recovered, and many of the old jobs are gone.
avoided bills good high holiday october shock shopping stays sticker warm
We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.
answer capital kick question spending
The question is often asked: When will capital spending kick in? I answer that it already has.
argument bias bit capacity careful excess fed inflation longer upside
You can no longer make the argument that there is a lot of excess capacity out there. The bias on inflation is a little bit to the upside and the Fed has to be careful about that.
activity baby betting boomers bubble buy crunch housing increase next resources six value
You have the Baby Boomers having the resources to buy condominiums, betting on the increase in value in the next six months, ... That activity may be the first to feel the crunch if the housing bubble bursts.
drag economic expecting flat fourth growth housing quarter second third
We're expecting housing to be flat in the second quarter and a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
degrees pain
There are varying degrees of pain, but I don't think there are going to be many sectors that are not going to be impacted,
cent currently domestic gross growth nearly per product risks stacked
We are currently estimating first-quarter US real gross domestic product growth at 5.3 per cent and feel the risks are nearly uniformly stacked on the upside.
consumer definitely employment expect figure filing financing gains half income offset season second slow spending tax wage
We definitely have to figure that once tax filing season is done and tax refunds are cashed, we do expect consumer spending will slow down in the second half of this year, ... I don't see any way to fudge that (higher financing costs). You're not getting the employment gains or wage and income gains to offset that.
accounting both consumer due fourth growth katrina outlook quarter slow slower third
The outlook accounting for Katrina suggests growth will slow in both the third and fourth quarter due to slower consumer spending.
experience reality
The reality is someone new is going to have to take over the job, and that new person is never going to have as much experience as Greenspan,