John Silvia
John Silvia
allow confidence data employment federal funds increase measure provides reserve taken
Taken together, all this employment data provides the Federal Reserve with a measure of confidence to allow an increase in the funds rate,
distort hazardous hiring months patterns school summer timing weather
Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.
adjustment change consumers downward expected gasoline increase overall pace permanent saving spending view
They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.
capital confidence flowing foreign higher impact interest negative rates stops
Once that confidence is lost, foreign capital stops flowing here. We'll have much higher interest rates and a negative impact on the economy.
line sales
On balance, I think it's the latter. In most businesses, inventories are in line with sales expectations.
corporate fed good news
It's good news for the economy, it's good news for the Fed and it's good news for corporate profits,
couple discussion estimates heard number
I've heard a lot of discussion the number could come out stronger. We have different models, and a couple of them have estimates where the number is higher.
clearly direct language
The language will clearly be different. He'll give you a direct answer.
dismissed months six
You could have dismissed it six months ago as a one-time hit,
This is more significant, ... it's a very big complication.
employment evidence far gain suggest
The evidence so far would suggest we're probably going to have a below-average employment gain in this recovery.
economic legs quarter recovery
The economic recovery has legs -- those of a pony, not yet a quarter horse.
change interest lifting market money negative rates rise seen sharp signal
The market has not seen a negative sharp change in fundamentals, ... You haven't seen a sharp rise in interest rates or a signal that the money isn't there to keep lifting prices.
change difficult fed goal market point pursuing raising sell
I think the market may sell off if there's no change in statement, ... It'll still be in the same difficult position, and it'll be disappointed that at this point the Fed is still pursuing goal of raising rates.