Josh Stiles
Josh Stiles
economy focus grow inflation keeping main maybe reason shifted strength
Strength in productivity is one main reason (that is) keeping inflation low, ... It has shifted the focus back to the economy - maybe the economy can grow at such strength without inflation.
agencies bottom credit good highest line looking maintain
The bottom line is, agencies will maintain their highest credit rating. Agencies are looking like pretty good value.
bring data fears greenspan lay strong
There are fears the data will be strong and Greenspan will lay the groundwork for tightening. In that environment, how do you bring in buyers?
found market needs top
In a short-term perspective, the market has found a top and needs to consolidate.
built currently cushion market prices recovery stronger turns
If the recovery turns out to be even stronger than the market currently thinks, then we'll see some more selling, but we have some cushion (for recovery) built into prices now.
buy few headline higher inflation next oil rise toward
I do think the rise in oil is significant enough already that that's going to buy us headline inflation higher in the next few months. We'll probably get up toward 3 percent.
consumer gain market sentiment taking
Consumer sentiment made an extraordinary month-to-month gain and really sparked the selling. The market has come a long way and short-term speculators are taking some profits.
classic definitely dilemma hurricane number paid prices related
The new weakness, which is probably related to the hurricane and oil, definitely set in. But this number was a classic dilemma for the market, because the prices paid really rocketed higher.
cooling demand fact fed potential rate saying until
It really comes down to the fact that the Fed is saying demand is excessive, ... Until they see enough cooling (of the economy) there's potential for more rate hikes.
again below bigger bond dips economy fairly few gone lacking looks next players road selling six struggling tested volatility
It looks like it may be fairly lacking in volatility for the next few days, (with yields) struggling around six percent, ... But I think that some of the bigger players are going to be selling when the bond dips below 6 percent, because they see down the road that the Fed's going to be tested again and again about the imbalances in the economy which haven't gone away.
bond concern eye market stock traders
There's concern for how the stock market has done recently. I do think bond traders have their eye on the stock market.
excitement initial people wore
The initial excitement wore off. People were positioned for it,
basis currency data fed gaining inflation market maybe meaning morning move november pause points pressures price raises rates september
The idea that's been gaining currency in the market is the Fed pause theory, meaning that the Fed raises rates 25 basis points in September and then, because inflation pressures are contained, they pause for a while, skipping a move in November and maybe even December. The (producer price index) data this morning kind of fed into that theory.
aircraft bond bulls context distorted headline market number report took
The market took the report in context -- which is that it is often distorted by aircraft orders. It didn't really ignite the bond bulls that the headline number was down so much.