Josh Stiles
Josh Stiles
cooling economy market pressures wage
I think (the GDP and ECI figures) will tell the market that the economy is not cooling much and that wage pressures are building.
bond commodity demand domestic labor market plenty strength tight worried
I think the fundamentals are more threatening to the bond market; such as commodity strength, the strength of domestic demand, the strength of demand around the world, and tight labor markets. So, there are plenty of things for the bond market to get worried about.
cool economy fed further hikes interest later rates seems sentiment starting
The market's starting to look further ahead. There seems to be the sentiment that the economy will cool and the Fed (once it hikes interest rates later this month) will be done.
aggressive cast doubt economy economy-and-economics fed morning seeing
It doesn't look like from what we are seeing this morning that the economy is recessionary, and now it's probably going to cast some doubt on how aggressive the Fed is going to want to be from here,
again below bigger bond dips economy fairly few gone lacking looks next players road selling six struggling tested volatility
It looks like it may be fairly lacking in volatility for the next few days, (with yields) struggling around six percent, ... But I think that some of the bigger players are going to be selling when the bond dips below 6 percent, because they see down the road that the Fed's going to be tested again and again about the imbalances in the economy which haven't gone away.
bit continues current economy economy-and-economics evidence five levels mount nearly note percent picking recovery reflect yield
The evidence continues to mount that the economy is picking up a little bit but current levels -- 5.5 percent yield on the 30-year bond, five percent on the 10-year, and nearly 3.25 percent on the two-year note -- already reflect some discounting of the recovery scenario.
buy few headline higher inflation next oil rise toward
I do think the rise in oil is significant enough already that that's going to buy us headline inflation higher in the next few months. We'll probably get up toward 3 percent.