Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
blunt deficit effect export fully growth help likely months ought remain solid trade
Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.
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Everyone was so focused on the word 'measured' that they didn't expect them to update the rest of the language to be more aggressive, so that took people by surprise a little bit,
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As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.
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We would not jump to any conclusions based on these numbers, particularly as the weekly jobless claims figures, adjusted for hurricane effects, point to considerably stronger job growth than reported.
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People were expecting the worst and I think the reaction you saw is that it wasn't as Draconian as many had feared. There wasn't any real hard table pounding or anything in the minutes that pointed to a 50-basic point hike at the next meeting.
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There's not much to worry about as far as imported inflation is concerned. For as long as the dollar hangs in there, we should see a benign reading for import prices excluding fuels.
great imports picking trend
The trend is not going to be that great if imports are picking up in momentum.
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Things are pretty healthy. The economy is growing at a nice clip, exports are rising and inventories are being accumulated.
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The strength in manufacturing is increasingly tied to strong demand for exports as well as reasonably good domestic demand. Other economies are doing well and we've still got reasonably good economic growth and inventory rebuilding in the U.S.
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Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.
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The national labor market numbers are being skewered by the hurricanes at the moment and it's going to be a few months before we get a clean read.
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February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
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This is actually fairly amazing given all the uncertainty engendered by the effect of the hurricanes on September data that has yet to be reported.
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They are being as clear as they possibly can be about raising rates in December without knowing what the data will be in the next month,