Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
basically continue disastrous fed interest last month mouth official opened saying unless
They are basically saying what every Fed official who has opened his mouth in the last month has said, ... The Fed is going to continue to nudge short-term interest rates, unless something disastrous happens.
companies finished higher hit labor offset prices products profits question raise unit
The big question now is how much companies will be able to raise prices for finished products to offset the hit to profits from higher unit labor costs.
anytime apart consumer fall growth housing likely outcome spending trend
A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.
accelerate belief coming core inch inflation remains unlikely
Our own belief remains that while core inflation could well inch up in the coming months, it is unlikely to accelerate significantly.
ahead buyers buying data last low maintained mortgage pace perceived plenty rate rates sales speculate strength
Clearly, as this sales data and also the mortgage application data show, there is plenty of strength still in housing. However, is this, as we speculate above, fence-sitting buying ahead of perceived rate increases, or can this pace be maintained as buyers think that low rates will last for the foreseeable future?
likely resume robust role third trade weight
In the third quarter, trade will resume its role as a weight on growth, but we are still likely to see a robust G.D.P. picture.
buyers chasing expecting fewer homes housing moderate mortgage peaked starting turn
Housing has peaked and we're expecting some moderate weakening in 2006. It's starting to turn into a buyers' market, with fewer buyers chasing more homes at these mortgage rates.
expecting housing moderate peaked
Housing has peaked and we're expecting some moderate weakening in 2006.
anytime consumers costs disappear economy energy higher labor likely markets seem soon taking toll
In general, consumers seem to be taking the view, at least initially, that higher energy costs will not disappear anytime soon and that they are likely to take a toll on the economy as a whole and on labor markets in particular.
combined consumer data entered fact july means personal point retail sales
Combined with the fact that today's retail sales data point to a surge in July personal consumption, this means that the consumer entered Q3 with substantial momentum.
change comments issues knows low raise rates remain
I don't see the comments from these two representing a change in the Fed's policy. Everyone knows that rates this low can't last, but the same issues remain -- 'When do you raise rates? What is the right timing'?
fed inflation officials slowing sort sounds worried
It sounds like he's sort of reaffirming what a lot of the Fed officials have been saying, which is that they are more worried about inflation than slowing growth,
closer consumer debate difficult mighty raise remains
It's mighty difficult the closer you get to the consumer to raise prices, and that remains the case. There is a big debate out there as to how long can this continue.
believe reason slow
It's more of a reason to believe that things are going to slow down.