Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
blunt deficit effect export fully growth help likely months ought remain solid trade
Export growth will remain solid in the months immediately ahead, which ought to help blunt (but not fully offset) the detrimental effect on the trade deficit of a likely acceleration in import growth.
clean few labor market moment months national numbers
The national labor market numbers are being skewered by the hurricanes at the moment and it's going to be a few months before we get a clean read.
bad beginning either february housing month months roll starts
February was not a bad month either temperature-wise. If you look at other evidence, things are beginning to roll over. You will see housing starts roll over in the months ahead.
basically continue disastrous fed interest last month mouth official opened saying unless
They are basically saying what every Fed official who has opened his mouth in the last month has said, ... The Fed is going to continue to nudge short-term interest rates, unless something disastrous happens.
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The Fed is not going to raise rates right away, even if the March numbers are really strong. They are going to wait until they get several months of very strong numbers, and for people to start really feeling that the labor market is improving before they raise rates.
gasoline impact tax
Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
comments concern continue core drift energy expect fed funds growth higher hit inflation next officials percent process quarter reach second suggest target temporary
We continue to expect the Fed funds target to reach 5 percent in the second quarter of next year, which is where we see the tightening process ending. Comments from Fed officials suggest that they expect only a temporary hit to growth from higher energy prices, while concern about a drift up in core inflation is increasing.
consumers gallon gasoline places survey wonder
Well, with gasoline well over $3.00 a gallon in most places when this survey was conducted, it is little wonder that consumers were cranky,
ahead cannot clearly higher minds rates rule rushing
With anticipations of higher rates still clearly in the minds of buyers, we cannot rule out fence-sitters rushing ahead of higher rates.
home pessimism reasonably reasons
There are reasonably deep-seated reasons for pessimism on the part of home builders.
basis currently demand fall high higher housing increase move remaining seeing seen starts today trend unable versus
While we have seen an increase today versus a forecasted decline, housing starts are currently doing on a trend basis what many have forecasted: remaining on a high plateau, unable to move higher but not seeing demand fall off enough to take starts lower.
bear believe brunt consumer energy following higher hurricane katrina leading prices seen spending
We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
growth near people recession slower talking
I don't think we're talking about a recession or a near recession. I think we're talking about growth that is slower than people expected.
early housing stages
We're in the early stages of a slowdown in the housing market.