Joshua Shapiro
Joshua Shapiro
bear believe brunt consumer energy following higher hurricane katrina leading prices seen spending
We believe that consumer spending is going to bear the brunt of higher energy prices that we have seen leading up to and immediately following Hurricane Katrina as discretionary spending is curtailed.
compared hard imports large near rate slow term
It's going to be hard in the near term to do anything more than slow the rate of deterioration in the deficit. Imports are just too large compared with exports.
gasoline impact tax
Refinery shutdowns will have a big impact on gasoline prices, ... and that's a tax on consumers.
bets capacity damage gasoline higher powerful prices stay storm wait
It's a wait and see. If we get another powerful storm that does damage to refining capacity in particular, I think all bets can be off if gasoline prices will go higher and stay there.
likely resume robust role third trade weight
In the third quarter, trade will resume its role as a weight on growth, but we are still likely to see a robust G.D.P. picture.
benign dollar far imported inflation prices reading worry
There's not much to worry about as far as imported inflation is concerned. For as long as the dollar hangs in there, we should see a benign reading for import prices excluding fuels.
economic federal finally interest labor last market maybe next number people piece raise rates reserve
If you get a big number next week, people will say great, the labor market is finally recovering, this is the last piece in the economic recovery, ... But they'll also say, well maybe now the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner.
adjustment builders process pumped
Builders were able to build and so they were out there doing it, and the seasonal adjustment process pumped it up.
attuned cause continue federal help highly inflation level officials producer reserve side situation tilt
Rumblings at the producer level will help keep Federal Reserve officials highly attuned to the inflation situation and will cause them to continue to tilt to the side of tighter policy.
autumn companies costs economic finished goods growth higher likely pass pressure winter
Economic growth in the autumn and winter is likely to be soft, ... and there is going to be heightened pressure on companies to try to pass through some of their higher costs into finished goods prices.
economy energy good health saying underlying
Basically, what they are saying is the underlying health of the economy was very good pre-hurricane and pre-spike in energy prices. And it is still pretty good after those things.
affluent bills build colder consumers impact less lifestyle rather
As things get colder and heating bills build up, it's going to come right out of discretionary spending, which will impact less affluent consumers more. For the wealthy, it's an inconvenience rather than a lifestyle change.
disruption due energy markets orders prices remains seen solid trend ultimately volatile whether
While these orders have been volatile of late, the trend remains a solid one. Whether we will see a disruption in this trend due to the surge in energy prices remains to be seen and will ultimately be more important to markets than today's pre-Katrina outcome.
activity declining evidence great housing levels mortgage rates
With mortgage rates still low, there is no evidence yet that levels of housing activity are declining to any great extent.