Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
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We're seeing the consumer back at the discretionary counters and that is good news for the entire industry.
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Until the unemployment picture improves, consumers will be very cautious about their spending habits. We think the second half of the year could also be difficult for the retail industry unless the job demand improves.
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Watch out for this company. It's telling us something. While most retailers sold indistinguishable products, Sharper Image sells exciting and unique things that people want to buy.
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We found out, from talking to consumers and store operators all over the country, that low-dollar items went very fast. Forget about high-end items.
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With Wal-Mart it's still a wait-and watch situation, but Target's news is a little worse. The problem with Target is that its department stores are underperforming.
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The potential for Web sales is tremendous and it carries the potential of completely altering and upsetting over the next few years all channels of retail selling.
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The problem with Target is a problem facing every retailer. The price of gas is coming down, but home heating oil is going to be a major problem, ... A lot of consumers are worried.
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There are a lot of companies out there whose essential business operating concept is past its prime and therefore their comparable sales are on a gradual decline.
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The only way to grow in the retail business is to add yet another 100 stores, another 600 stores. Then someone else will see that you are successful. And that other fellow will do the same. And for a while it is fine, until suddenly there are more stores than the community needs.
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We were dealing with a very cautious, very careful consumer who was not really inspired to buy anything because there wasn't anything worth buying.
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There are two conflicting forces at work on the consumer. One is people have jobs, they have money, the unemployment rate is still at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, a lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable. A lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable, people have money and jobs, but they don't have as high a discretionary spending level as they did a year ago.
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With this kind of weather, we've now had this for some days, I think you'll find retail sales will reflect a cautious attitude on the part of consumers,
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We're seeing clearance sales that are early by at least three to four weeks. Going back to the beginning of summer they had a lot of inventory on hand and they need to get rid of it, ... Second-quarter earnings are going to reflect the markdowns. Everybody has been caught in the downdraft.
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It is a good time if you're willing to accept slow growth and slow improvement. We do not anticipate at this time that the foreseeable future will bring a real strong massive upturn in consumer spending.