Lyle Gramley
Lyle Gramley
Lyle Elden Gramleywas an American economist. Involved in economic policymaking during the Carter and Reagan presidencies, he served on the Council of Economic Advisers from 1977 to 1980, and on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1980 to 1985...
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That wouldn't happen with just any Joe Blow.
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Greenspan did not participate in supplying numbers for that forecast -- he refused to do so -- and sometimes in his testimony he didn't even mention the forecast.
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Being Fed chairman only increases his value that much more.
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The markets are helping the Fed accomplish what it's seeking, to slow down the economy a bit, take some of the froth off,
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If you raise interest rates in the face of what you know will be some pretty awful economic numbers, you must have a lot of confidence about the economy's ultimate recovery and a lot of concern about inflation.
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I don't think the evidence that small businesses are affected adversely is terribly compelling, ... I think tax cuts had a useful role in getting the economy going again, but we probably could have accomplished much of that with a narrower, more focused tax cut.
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Crisis management has been elevated to a very fine skill under his tutelage.
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Anyone who sits at that table knows that if the Fed puts his head up in the midst of an election campaign when it's not necessary to do so, that would be a rather foolish thing to do. You don't want people shooting at you unnecessarily - you'd rather live to fight another day.
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My own preference would be for the Fed to state explicitly what it's aiming at, ... That would be helpful in quieting the bond market. But I don't think it's going to happen.
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Then the Fed would be in a very tough spot,
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There are a lot of worries circulating around about deflation, ... What the Fed is doing is saying we don't need to worry. If deflation happens, they will counter aggressively, and they have the tools to do so.
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whoever they pick has a considerable degree of background and expertise on monetary policy.
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What the Fed is trying to do, by being more transparent and more communicative, is highly desirable. But there are going to slips along the way. Ben will learn and the markets will learn.
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This time, we're starting with an inflation rate that's too low and heading lower, ... What that means is the Fed will sit still until such time as it sees inflation start turning up -- which might not happen until late 2004 or early 2005.