Lyle Gramley
Lyle Gramley
Lyle Elden Gramleywas an American economist. Involved in economic policymaking during the Carter and Reagan presidencies, he served on the Council of Economic Advisers from 1977 to 1980, and on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1980 to 1985...
doubt expect percent sit
I don't think there's any doubt they'll go to 5 percent in May. I expect them to sit still after that.
along coming employment guess likely meeting next october pause report year
I do think a pause is coming along at some point. My guess has been all along that a pause was more likely in the first meeting of next year than in December. The October employment report strengthens that view.
both dragged himself political response sides
I don't think he'll let himself be dragged into that kind response to both sides of political fence.
I don't think he is going to go way out on a limb.
fed tough
Then the Fed would be in a very tough spot,
dynamism momentum none normally recovery seen
This is a very different recovery than any I've seen -- there's none of the dynamism or momentum we normally see,
acute almost average close country fed good great kept mentally mind people phenomenal praise wonderful
Not only is he as mentally acute as the average 77-year-old, he's as acute as the average 27-year-old. He has a phenomenal mind and very good judgment, ... People close to the decision-making at the Fed are almost unanimously in great praise of him, as I would be. I think it's a wonderful thing for the Fed and for the country that he's being kept on.
altogether anyway avoid coming cuts economy effects entirely increasing injuring knew negative period possible remove repeal simply tax
It's entirely possible you could repeal tax cuts without injuring the economy if you did it carefully, over a period of time, while offsetting it in part by increasing expenditures you knew were coming anyway or thought desirable. But you couldn't simply remove the tax cuts altogether right away and avoid significant negative effects to the economy.
accomplish economy fed helping markets slow
The markets are helping the Fed accomplish what it's seeking, to slow down the economy a bit, take some of the froth off,
door fed increase opened
I think the Fed opened the door for a half-percentage-point increase in August, if it's needed,
deflation fed flirting lets needs rates running starts toward worry
I think the Fed needs to worry about the possibility it's flirting with deflation if it lets this go too far. When nominal rates get down toward zero, the Fed starts running out of ammunition.
awful concern confidence economic face interest raise rates recovery ultimate
If you raise interest rates in the face of what you know will be some pretty awful economic numbers, you must have a lot of confidence about the economy's ultimate recovery and a lot of concern about inflation.
economy fed growing looking risks strongly upside
The Fed is looking at an economy right now that is growing strongly with upside risks to inflation.
aside await content definitive election evidence fed inflation interest itself looking problem raise rates setting sidelines sit whether
The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.'