Lyle Gramley
Lyle Gramley
Lyle Elden Gramleywas an American economist. Involved in economic policymaking during the Carter and Reagan presidencies, he served on the Council of Economic Advisers from 1977 to 1980, and on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1980 to 1985...
door fed increase opened
I think the Fed opened the door for a half-percentage-point increase in August, if it's needed,
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This is a very different recovery than any I've seen -- there's none of the dynamism or momentum we normally see,
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Greenspan is not a guy likely to brag much, but he'll indicate the economy is still in good condition, that much of the recent bubbling up in inflation is likely to prove transitory, and that fundamentals of the economy are still quite strong despite some of the recent data.
deflation fed flirting lets needs rates running starts toward worry
I think the Fed needs to worry about the possibility it's flirting with deflation if it lets this go too far. When nominal rates get down toward zero, the Fed starts running out of ammunition.
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It's entirely possible you could repeal tax cuts without injuring the economy if you did it carefully, over a period of time, while offsetting it in part by increasing expenditures you knew were coming anyway or thought desirable. But you couldn't simply remove the tax cuts altogether right away and avoid significant negative effects to the economy.
apart beginning bond energy inflation knew market pick rise signs talk worried
I don't know what the bond market has been worried about. There's much talk about the possibility of inflation beginning to pick up. I don't see any signs of that at all apart from the rise in energy prices, which we all knew was going to take place.
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The Fed is looking at an economy right now that is growing strongly with upside risks to inflation.
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I can't interpret this report as a weak economy, and I don't think the Fed will either. They are going to persist in moving interest rates up until they see greater indications than what we have now that either the economy is weakening, or inflation is getting under control, or both.
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I think he's well aware of the fact they need to improve (communication). It's very a difficult thing to do. I think they're improving.
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This is an economy that's been struggling to keep its head above water for some time, so this kind of a rise in long-term interest rates is not welcome at this point,
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My concern is not with a double-dip recession. It's with the likelihood we are gong to be in an extended period of growth below potential, and that would mean rising unemployment.
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whoever they pick has a considerable degree of background and expertise on monetary policy.
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This time, we're starting with an inflation rate that's too low and heading lower, ... What that means is the Fed will sit still until such time as it sees inflation start turning up -- which might not happen until late 2004 or early 2005.