Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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Corporate America is on the mend. The only downside of stronger productivity growth is that it means hiring is lagging. As far as downsides go, this is roughly the equivalent of eating your broccoli. It may be tough to stomach at first, but it makes you stronger and healthier in the long run.
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With so many folks sensing that interest rates were rising, we probably had some sales pulled from April into March,
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While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
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There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
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The recent weakness in wage and salary growth is bad news for retailers, since wages and salaries, which account for more than 56 percent of personal income, tend to influence spending decisions far more than other income sources.
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There is some concern that we could see a much more hawkish stance from the Fed and that Greenspan may spell out a little more tightening than the markets had priced after the January employment number.
across low places quite time
Unemployment is low in places that were and were not impacted by hurricanes. It has been low for quite some time all across the state.
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We haven't seen that much improvement in employment of hourly workers because the job market for lower-skill workers still has a lot of slack in it. But if you look at skilled workers, it's a much different picture. We're starting to see some real shortages in some sectors.
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Virtually all indices remain at solid levels. It's a very strong reading for manufacturing overall. The most disturbing thing is the prices paid which is almost at crisis levels.
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We've had a pretty good run here in anticipation that the Fed is nearly done raising interest rates.
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We've had very little economic growth, virtually no job growth. The only way you'll get income growth is through wage increases or through tax cuts.
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When all is said and done, we should still have a fairly healthy level of new home sales this year -- probably up 4 to 5 percent for the year.
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What happened in March, if you were thinking about buying a home this spring and you thought rates were going to rise, you may well have rushed into the market. The weather cooperated as well, making it easy for folks to get out and shop, particularly in the South.
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While core finished goods are still relatively tame, there are signs that price increases are accelerating further back in the production pipeline, ... Typically the Fed continues tightening until this series tops out. But with prices up only modestly, they will likely continue to make only modest adjustments.