Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
consumers economy-and-economics fairly holiday season worried
Consumers are fairly worried about the economy. ... I think the holiday season is going to be ho-hum,
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The No. 1 reason new orders and production are falling is that inventories have risen in recent months as consumer spending has slowed, ... Such a buildup was acceptable when economic growth was accelerating. Now that growth is cooling off, businesses will need to curb stockpiles.
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The number one problem continues to be a lack of job and income growth.
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It really depends on when you get the flat curve. Right now with the low rates, I don't see dire implications from a flattening yield curve. It just is accurately indicating that the economy is slowly or moderating.
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It suggests there could be a profit squeeze in some of the cyclical industries, ... Autos. Household appliances. Anything that has a lot of raw commodity in it. The end user is going to have a hard time passing those costs on to the consumers.
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It's truly amazing unemployment has gotten this low in Florida when the population is growing as fast as it is.
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The biggest mistake of economists over the past 20 years ... We've consistently underestimated growth.
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They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
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It's always a question in getting the cost right and delivering the product at the right time.
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So even if tomorrow's ISM report does not show anywhere near the weakness the Chicago report does, we could still see some follow through in the next month's numbers.
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The labor market seems to be improving. It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
case clearly decent economic growth half labor likely market second seems
The labor market seems to be improving, ... It bolsters the case we've been making that the economic slowdown story is a little oversold. Clearly growth is moderating, but we're still likely to see some decent growth the second half of the year.
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The Miami economy is the strongest it has been in my memory as a professional economist, which goes back 22 years. International trade is booming. Population growth is strong. And all that growth is creating tremendous demand for services.
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They rely on a lot of other things. When you look at economy in its totality, virtually everything is stronger than the employment data.