Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
cut data fed folks interest jump move next quick sign sure talk
Some folks will be quick to jump on this morning's data as a sure sign that the next move by the Fed will be to cut interest rates. Such talk is still way too premature.
both bright concerned consumers economy employment figure less likely rapidly rise sitting spending spot stock
The more important figure (than confidence) for the economy is what consumers actually do. Consumers are not sitting on their wallets just yet. But that is about the only bright spot in this morning's report. With consumers concerned about both their stock portfolios and employment prospects, spending will likely rise a little less rapidly this fall.
abroad deficit demand economy economy-and-economics happen holiday next optimistic order reasonably retailers season shopping starting strong time trade turn until
Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year.
demand growth high job market proportion vastly
A very high proportion of that job growth is occurring in high-paying professions. This is a demand-driven market and demand vastly exceeds supply.
abruptly afterwards ahead came chicago fed late month quite soon weakness
Back in late 2000 the Chicago PMI weakened a month ahead of the ISM survey. The weakness then also came quite unexpectedly and soon afterwards the Fed abruptly reversed course,
baby dunk energy likely move prices raise rates remain slam
As long as energy prices remain high, they're likely to move in baby steps. I just don't think it's a slam dunk that they raise rates in December.
economy economy-and-economics global tells
That tells me not only is the global economy not strengthening, but it's getting weaker.
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Alabama wanted to diversify its economy, and it paid up to do it.
cause coming conclude economic expected fed heels inflation interest june leave news rates recent unchanged weaker
Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.
claims cold coming confidence consumer drop face heels including looking reports retail sales sharp slap stronger
Coming on the heels of stronger reports on retail sales and durable-goods orders, as well as a sharp drop in first-time claims for unemployment, this ... drop in consumer confidence was a cold slap in the face to all of those economists, including ourselves, that are looking for a second-half rebound.
accounts motor overall percent rebound retail rise sales vehicle
A rebound in motor vehicle sales accounts for much of December's 0.7 percent rise in overall retail sales and is also responsible for much of November's upward revision.
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The way the Fed is supposed to influence markets is through an open market policy, but they will also use the open mouth policy,
account adjustment came causes data employment gauge hard hiring holiday later might november numbers problem thanksgiving wider year
The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
bridge case cuts gap hiring hope picks plan precarious seems tax until
We hope it will be the case that tax cuts will bridge the gap until hiring picks up, but that seems like a pretty precarious plan. But it's the only plan we've got.