Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
boost businesses costs energy fed growth hiking hire hiring interest labor looks markets output rates recent reluctant
The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.
deficit domestic exports gross improvement percent quarter shave third trade virtually
Exports are off in virtually every category. I don't see much near-term improvement for the trade deficit. The trade deficit will probably shave about 0.5 percent off of third quarter Gross Domestic Product.
commodity costs cyclical hard household passing profit raw squeeze time user
It suggests there could be a profit squeeze in some of the cyclical industries, ... Autos. Household appliances. Anything that has a lot of raw commodity in it. The end user is going to have a hard time passing those costs on to the consumers.
disturb hear interest rates sure
I'm not too sure we're going to hear that much that will disturb markets, but I'm sure he'll say at least something hinting that long-term interest rates are too low,
confidence consumer early economic sequence stages uncommon
The two-steps-forward, one-step-back sequence is not at all uncommon for the Consumer Confidence Index during the early stages of an economic recovery.
behavior change changes consumers eat effect felt further gasoline gradually high months prices recent seen stay
High gasoline prices gradually eat away at income. The effect isn't felt all at once. We have seen consumers change their behavior in recent months and there should be further changes if prices stay at these levels.
commentary early economic economy federal funds growth interpret minutes neutral potential rate soft stages
You could even interpret the minutes to read that economic growth has already slowed to its long-run potential and that the federal funds rate is already at a neutral level. The Fed's commentary describes an economy that is nearing or already in the early stages of a soft landing.
broaden consumer drought greater larger led longer mystery persists profit prolonged recession risk slump
The mystery is why this prolonged profit slump has not led to a larger cutback in consumer spending, ... The longer the profit drought persists the greater the risk is that this recession will broaden and deepen.
costs drivers driving finished hiring industry pressure price translated
The trucking industry is very competitive, so driving up the costs of hiring drivers has not really translated that much to price pressure for finished goods.
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I don't see any storm clouds on the economic horizon. We don't see any potential land mines or problem areas. Even an attack on the scale of 9/11 would not cause the economy to go into recession in the next two years.
demand growth high job market proportion vastly
A very high proportion of that job growth is occurring in high-paying professions. This is a demand-driven market and demand vastly exceeds supply.
economy economy-and-economics global tells
That tells me not only is the global economy not strengthening, but it's getting weaker.
attracted greater portion
The same thing that has attracted retirees over the years is still there: the weather. You can do more things for a greater portion of the year.
claims cold coming confidence consumer drop face heels including looking reports retail sales sharp slap stronger
Coming on the heels of stronger reports on retail sales and durable-goods orders, as well as a sharp drop in first-time claims for unemployment, this ... drop in consumer confidence was a cold slap in the face to all of those economists, including ourselves, that are looking for a second-half rebound.