Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
consumers economy-and-economics fairly holiday season worried
Consumers are fairly worried about the economy. ... I think the holiday season is going to be ho-hum,
anecdotal anywhere common common-sense core evidence inflation near
Anecdotal evidence and common sense suggests that core inflation has not been anywhere near this tame.
economy economy-and-economics florida history recall strong time
I really can't recall a time in history when the Florida economy was as strong as it is today.
improvement looks points probable rate
The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable. It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment.
economic four growth next rather return slower sure three
(The Fed) would rather see slower economic growth over the next two years than the return of stagflation three or four years down the road. And I think they'll do everything they have to make sure we don't have stagflation.
consumers
It is important to look at what consumers are doing, not what they are saying,
coming expected gain job likely state states
The state is expected to gain 150,000 new residents this year, with two-thirds of the adults likely coming from other states for job opportunities.
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
economy either growth happening job labor losing means momentum side stronger touch
It either means the economy is losing momentum or the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is losing touch what's actually happening in the economy. Right now I don't know what side to come down on. My sense is that job growth has been stronger than reported.
coming growth major places population rapid tourists
The major story in these places is very rapid population growth, with retirees, seasonal residents and tourists coming in,
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Demand in the U.S. economy is reasonably strong and retailers are probably optimistic about the holiday shopping season so they are starting to order from abroad now. The trade deficit is going to take some time to turn around. It may not happen until next year.
markets rational
Markets are rational and forward-looking. However, they can also be wrong.
accurately depends dire economy flat low slowly yield
It really depends on when you get the flat curve. Right now with the low rates, I don't see dire implications from a flattening yield curve. It just is accurately indicating that the economy is slowly or moderating.
accustomed dealing disaster type
This is such a different type of disaster than we're accustomed to dealing with.