Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
bearing created economy jobs kerry looking matter million until
The 10 million jobs may be realistic, but it may not be all that different from what we would see no matter what happens. We're looking for 3 million jobs to be created in 2004. Even if Kerry is elected, he'll have no bearing on the economy until 2006.
beer cars consumers core dollars fewer gasoline helping higher left money move net order prices result seems spent
While it seems counterintuitive, higher gasoline prices are actually helping restrain core inflation, ... With more money being spent for gasoline, consumers have fewer dollars left for discretionary purchases. The net result is that firms are slashing prices on everything from cars to beer in order to move product.
april folks interest pulled rates sales
With so many folks sensing that interest rates were rising, we probably had some sales pulled from April into March,
budget deficit federal government increases interest means rates tax
When the federal government increases the budget deficit it increases interest rates on everybody, so it is like a tax increase on borrowing. What that means is that mortgages will be more expensive.
across low places quite time
Unemployment is low in places that were and were not impacted by hurricanes. It has been low for quite some time all across the state.
good income news personal report
Today's personal income report had very good news on inflation.
almost crisis disturbing paid prices reading remain solid strong virtually
Virtually all indices remain at solid levels. It's a very strong reading for manufacturing overall. The most disturbing thing is the prices paid which is almost at crisis levels.
afford clearly cuts debate helped lead recovery sustained tax whether
The debate about tax cuts shouldn't be whether they helped or not -- they clearly helped taxpayers. The debate should be whether we can afford them and whether they can lead to a sustained recovery in economy.
earlier harder january large likely revision
We're likely to see large upward revision to earlier data, so it'll be harder for January to show a big gain.
coming damn economic interest percent plenty rates reports respond weak zero
We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
along badly business came economy economy-and-economics inventory numbers realizing result revised saw second slightly trade weaker weakness week wider zero
We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
fed funds higher knows manual neutral operating rate says
There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
both created jobs quality quantity seeing
We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.
sure
I don't think it's a sure thing they'll tighten in December, even if it is now more likely.