Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
belief bleed core energy eventually people prices quarter seen
People keep asking, 'How can it be that we haven't seen energy prices bleed over into the core?' ... Our belief is that it will eventually show up in the core CPI, but it may not show up in 2005. It may be in first quarter of 2006.
cause doubt fed next point quarter raise rates report strong three
I don't think there's much doubt the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point each of the next three meetings. Even a really strong report probably won't cause them to raise rates by a half-point.
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The number one problem continues to be a lack of job and income growth.
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The federal government is going to spend whatever they need to, to make some visible progress before next year's mid-term elections, ... And what that's going to do to an economy that's already at full employment is drive up the cost of cement, drive up the cost of steel, drive up the cost of labor.
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That caused some orders to be pulled forward into December that might have normally occurred in January or February,
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The economy seems to be getting over the bursting of the tech bubble. It finally appears that the Triangle is firing on all cylinders.
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It's always a question in getting the cost right and delivering the product at the right time.
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Flood damage does not tend to be as insured. The lack of insurance is likely to cause the recovery to be delayed,
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I don't have any faith that 32,000 jobs added reflects what's going on. The growing disconnect between the surveys is too much to dismiss.
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Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.
apartment area buildings built centers country damages extended given good reach shopping tested unusually wet worse
Given that it's going to reach such an extended area and that it will be an unusually wet storm, damages are going to be a lot worse than $1 billion. So many homes, apartment buildings and shopping centers have been built in this part of the country that haven't been tested by a big storm. Now we're going to see just how good this construction has been.
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I think it's going to be a bad month for retailers. The news was so horrific coming out of New Orleans that it made people not feel like going out to dinner.
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It will take longer for Louisiana and Mississippi to recover from the storm than Florida last year, ... Resource- and agriculture-reliant areas just don't do as well.
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It (consumer sentiment) was a little higher than expected, but the stock market has come back, gasoline prices have come down, and the weather has been beautiful and that has to affect consumers somewhat.