Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
coming damn economic interest percent plenty rates reports respond weak zero
We're going to have plenty of weak economic reports over the coming months. If they respond to every one, they'll get down to zero percent interest rates pretty damn quick.
along badly business came economy economy-and-economics inventory numbers realizing result revised saw second slightly trade weaker weakness week wider zero
We're just now realizing how badly off the economy was in the second quarter, ... The wider trade gap, along with the weakness we saw in the business inventory numbers that came out this week and weaker construction spending, will probably result in a second-quarter revised GDP number that will be zero or even slightly negative. It will be an eye-opening number, but it's no more worrisome than what we've seen.
account adjustment came causes data employment gauge hard hiring holiday later might november numbers problem thanksgiving wider year
The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
continue fed inflation interest paid prices raise running
The prices paid is still way up there, inflation is still running a little hot, enough that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
building business consumer driven economy home shifting spending
We're shifting from an economy driven by consumer spending and home building to one driven by business investment.
both created jobs quality quantity seeing
We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.
continues defy demand doom housing quite record remains strong year
It continues to defy all the expectations of doom in the housing market. Demand for housing still remains quite strong and this year will be a record year for single-family construction.
commodity costs cyclical hard household passing profit raw squeeze time user
It suggests there could be a profit squeeze in some of the cyclical industries, ... Autos. Household appliances. Anything that has a lot of raw commodity in it. The end user is going to have a hard time passing those costs on to the consumers.
disturb hear interest rates sure
I'm not too sure we're going to hear that much that will disturb markets, but I'm sure he'll say at least something hinting that long-term interest rates are too low,
fed funds higher knows manual neutral operating rate says
There is no operating manual that says what a neutral fed funds rate is, but the Fed knows that it's higher than 3 percent,
add combined difficult employer existing forces gains health next work year
When combined with the anticipated double-digit gains in employer health-care costs, manufacturers may find it very difficult to add to their payrolls next year and may opt to work their existing work forces longer.
budget deficit federal government increases interest means rates tax
When the federal government increases the budget deficit it increases interest rates on everybody, so it is like a tax increase on borrowing. What that means is that mortgages will be more expensive.