Maureen Allyn
Maureen Allyn
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The price we have to pay for all this is someplace. Early in the century, we're going to see a real good old-fashioned panic of the kind we haven't seen in a long time.
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I have never thought that what a government wants its currency to do makes a hill of difference. What's holding the dollar up is a desire to put money here and a faith in Greenspan and Corporate America. That's all psychology, and it can turn on a dime.
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A strong dollar takes away companies' pricing power because imported goods come in a lot cheaper, and it impacts earnings because they can't raise prices.
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I think they'll cut a quarter point, like everybody else in the market. The markets have gotten a pretty good read on what's going on, and I take my cue from them.
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Employers are reluctant to hire people who can't do the job they want and they're reluctant to pay more.
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I think that's got to be a better-than-even chance at this point. We know from their discussions that they were very, very nervous. This isn't going to calm them down any.
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It's not a dramatic fallout, and I don't see any evidence of panic. It's much more of a gradual adjustment; people have to diversify a little more. It just slows things down a little bit.
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That's all got to be cleaned up. The stock market's going to struggle until that happens, and the economy at large will feel like it's moving through molasses, even though it will be moving forward.
layoffs
I have to think there will be more layoffs in the pipeline.
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The rest of the world is not in good shape and exporting to them is a tough slog.
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I think we are heading into the worst of it. Investors think there we're heading towards a recovery in the next six months and I hope that they are right, but I just don't see the valuations for a huge rally going forward.
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We're growing vigorously, and I think that the bond market is right to be a little bit concerned about this. It's not the data we've gotten, but the data we didn't get. We didn't get a slowdown in the second quarter. That, I think, is going to make the Fed very nervous.
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What we're getting are increasing signs of caution on the part of consumer. You simply can't be in this society and read all the headlines about job losses going on without wondering if this is going to apply to you sometime.