Michael Gregory
Michael Gregory
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We're seeing signs that consumers are starting to feel the impact of persistently high gas prices. As prices stay high we're going to see the impact broaden from discount to more mainstream retailers.
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Claims are pointing to firm, if not firming, conditions in the labor market. Corporate profits are just huge and businesses are in a position to expand.
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People are infatuated with candles, they're using them more than ever,
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Exports should find further support from the pickup in global economic growth.
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There's little doubt out there that Greenspan will move this time around and try to put the brakes on growth a bit. The question is whether this is a one-time deal or a continuation of a series of moves meant to really keep the economy in line.
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Our last two fires had smoke detectors, but no batteries, ... We're praying to get the word out (about smoke alarms).
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All is not quiet on the inflation front. Commodity prices and capacity constraints still pose some inflation risks.
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I think a lot of people's perceptions are still affected by the bubble years. If you take away that four-year period when the unemployment rate was lower, you have to go back some 32 years to find an unemployment rate lower than it is right now.
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There is no question that the economy is slowing, but it's not exactly shrinking, either, ... We are seeing the first tentative signs of slowing, but you have to remember that we are starting at a very high base of growth. The Fed will still err on the side of caution and restraint.
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The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.
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Underlying demand in the U.S. economy remains solid, irrespective of the stock market. We are looking at growth in domestic spending that will probably exceed what we had in the fourth quarter.