Michael Gregory
Michael Gregory
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There's a general consensus out there that rates are headed higher in the U.S. and Europe, but there's apprehension about it anyway, ... That affecting the euro and that's affecting the bond market.
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There's little doubt out there that Greenspan will move this time around and try to put the brakes on growth a bit. The question is whether this is a one-time deal or a continuation of a series of moves meant to really keep the economy in line.
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The trend is improving in manufacturing as businesses pick up the pace of spending on equipment, so we're looking for continued expansion in the factory sector.
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Is there a risk the Fed has tightened too much? Not with the kind of momentum we're seeing in the economy and not with consumer confidence at record highs. People are wealthier, real incomes are growing, the housing market, while slower, is still super strong and the labor market is still super tight. I don't think the Fed is finished just yet.
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Do they really want to end the party? Of course not, ... They want to tone the party down before something gets broken or damaged, or worse, before someone gets hurt. It's similar to a marathon: if you pace yourself properly you can get to the end without overexertion. That is what the Fed is trying to do here.
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There wasn't all that much of a surprise there. Clearly the risk is still there for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
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Despite the fact that energy prices are creeping up and housing continues to crumble, surveys suggest job gains are providing an offset for confidence. The potential is there for consumer spending to remain resilient.
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As far as the Fed goes, it really isn't inflation on the ground that's a concern, it's inflation down the road. For a very long time, they've offset that with global concerns, but there doesn't appear to be any more world crises to worry about.
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Claims are pointing to firm, if not firming, conditions in the labor market. Corporate profits are just huge and businesses are in a position to expand.
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Inflation is not a problem right now; that is not really what the Fed is paying attention to.
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I'd thought they wouldn't want to sort of venture there again, given that all is not perfect on the commodity price front,
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Consumers may be wobbly, owing to high energy prices, a vulnerable housing sector and increasingly uncertain medical and pension benefits, but there is nothing like the whiff of solid job growth to keep them on their feet.
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It's not so much GM, but it could have been one of the proverbial straws that broke consumers' backs. All of a sudden people have to pay more for energy, debt service, healthcare, and save more for retirement.
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The big news will be the G-7. If the markets get a sense that there's somebody out there who will do something to prevent the dollar from falling further, I think people will be relieved.