Michael Gregory
Michael Gregory
broken course fed gets pace party properly similar tone trying
Do they really want to end the party? Of course not, ... They want to tone the party down before something gets broken or damaged, or worse, before someone gets hurt. It's similar to a marathon: if you pace yourself properly you can get to the end without overexertion. That is what the Fed is trying to do here.
appear crises far fed global ground inflation offset worry
As far as the Fed goes, it really isn't inflation on the ground that's a concern, it's inflation down the road. For a very long time, they've offset that with global concerns, but there doesn't appear to be any more world crises to worry about.
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That's certainly going to be the critical number. A number indicating employment growth, particularly increases in wages, could prompt the Fed to move by the end of this month.
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the Fed is going to want to take the more cautious road. Two months is an awful long time to wait to react to evidence, particularly if that evidence indicates the economy is starting to heat up again.
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There's a general consensus out there that rates are headed higher in the U.S. and Europe, but there's apprehension about it anyway, ... That affecting the euro and that's affecting the bond market.
commodity given perfect price sort venture
I'd thought they wouldn't want to sort of venture there again, given that all is not perfect on the commodity price front,
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It's only a matter of time though before the consumer succumbs to weakening housing and higher gas prices, and I think we'll see that by the third quarter.
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Inflation is not a problem right now; that is not really what the Fed is paying attention to.
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There wasn't all that much of a surprise there. Clearly the risk is still there for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
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The Canadian currency is considered a commodity currency. When commodities prices are up, investors tend to have exposure to the currency.
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The market is concerned about not if, but how much over the course of the year the Fed will move. There's been a lot of discussion about more than one rate increase, which is what's concerning the markets.
broader continues housing sector surprise view
This surprise rise in no way alters the broader view that the housing sector continues to cool.
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There is no question that the economy is slowing, but it's not exactly shrinking, either, ... We are seeing the first tentative signs of slowing, but you have to remember that we are starting at a very high base of growth. The Fed will still err on the side of caution and restraint.
economy economy-and-economics fast fed growing inflation present question slack threat
The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.