Michael Gregory
Michael Gregory
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People are infatuated with candles, they're using them more than ever,
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Is there a risk the Fed has tightened too much? Not with the kind of momentum we're seeing in the economy and not with consumer confidence at record highs. People are wealthier, real incomes are growing, the housing market, while slower, is still super strong and the labor market is still super tight. I don't think the Fed is finished just yet.
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It's not so much GM, but it could have been one of the proverbial straws that broke consumers' backs. All of a sudden people have to pay more for energy, debt service, healthcare, and save more for retirement.
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The big news will be the G-7. If the markets get a sense that there's somebody out there who will do something to prevent the dollar from falling further, I think people will be relieved.
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I think a lot of people's perceptions are still affected by the bubble years. If you take away that four-year period when the unemployment rate was lower, you have to go back some 32 years to find an unemployment rate lower than it is right now.
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Over the past several weeks we've moved from pricing in one further move by the Fed to odds favoring two moves.
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Our last two fires had smoke detectors, but no batteries, ... We're praying to get the word out (about smoke alarms).
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With business outlays solid and foreign demand picking up, this will likely keep the Fed in the tightening game through the first half of the year.
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The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.
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There is no question that the economy is slowing, but it's not exactly shrinking, either, ... We are seeing the first tentative signs of slowing, but you have to remember that we are starting at a very high base of growth. The Fed will still err on the side of caution and restraint.
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We're seeing signs that consumers are starting to feel the impact of persistently high gas prices. As prices stay high we're going to see the impact broaden from discount to more mainstream retailers.
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If it's the case that certain kinds of trade are not done with Cuba right now because they're in U.S. dollars, then that's fine -- changing to the euro might help that. If it's a case where using euros to conduct more liberal trade with Europe, then that's certainly of benefit, as well.
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Underlying demand in the U.S. economy remains solid, irrespective of the stock market. We are looking at growth in domestic spending that will probably exceed what we had in the fourth quarter.
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Exports should find further support from the pickup in global economic growth.