Michael Gregory
Michael Gregory
fed further moved odds past pricing several weeks
Over the past several weeks we've moved from pricing in one further move by the Fed to odds favoring two moves.
affected bubble lower period rate
I think a lot of people's perceptions are still affected by the bubble years. If you take away that four-year period when the unemployment rate was lower, you have to go back some 32 years to find an unemployment rate lower than it is right now.
infatuated people using
People are infatuated with candles, they're using them more than ever,
fires last praying smoke word
Our last two fires had smoke detectors, but no batteries, ... We're praying to get the word out (about smoke alarms).
business demand fed foreign game half likely picking solid
With business outlays solid and foreign demand picking up, this will likely keep the Fed in the tightening game through the first half of the year.
economy economy-and-economics fast fed growing inflation present question slack threat
The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.
base caution economy economy-and-economics err exactly fed high question remember seeing side signs starting
There is no question that the economy is slowing, but it's not exactly shrinking, either, ... We are seeing the first tentative signs of slowing, but you have to remember that we are starting at a very high base of growth. The Fed will still err on the side of caution and restraint.
broaden consumers discount gas high impact mainstream prices seeing signs starting stay
We're seeing signs that consumers are starting to feel the impact of persistently high gas prices. As prices stay high we're going to see the impact broaden from discount to more mainstream retailers.
case certain certainly changing conduct cuba euro fine help kinds liberal might trade using
If it's the case that certain kinds of trade are not done with Cuba right now because they're in U.S. dollars, then that's fine -- changing to the euro might help that. If it's a case where using euros to conduct more liberal trade with Europe, then that's certainly of benefit, as well.
demand domestic economy economy-and-economics exceed fourth growth looking remains spending stock underlying
Underlying demand in the U.S. economy remains solid, irrespective of the stock market. We are looking at growth in domestic spending that will probably exceed what we had in the fourth quarter.
economic exports further global growth pickup support
Exports should find further support from the pickup in global economic growth.
activity factory likely remains slightly
Factory activity likely cooled slightly in December, but remains robust.
broader continues housing sector surprise view
This surprise rise in no way alters the broader view that the housing sector continues to cool.
along consumer ebb equity fed growth keys mortgage prices pull spending
Mortgage equity withdrawal (which keys off prices and rates) is going to ebb substantially and pull consumer spending growth down along with it. When it does, the Fed will pause.