Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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It's something of an uplifting experience for us in the investing community to see that companies really are taking their accounting seriously. An exercise that CEOs seemed to treat as rote and automatic is viewed totally differently.
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It's equally distributed in Nasdaq. I haven't seen any particular catalysts. The front-line companies like Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, Oracle are still suffering from tax selling.
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Everybody knows the second quarter is going to be miserable but there's a sliver of optimism on the part of investors that would hope that the commentary would be geared toward a better scenario.
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I think what we have is a recognition by investors that there is some decent value at this price. But whether they have the intestinal fortitude to stay during further adverse times is still unanswered. Today, they seem to have rallied based on the expectation that there is cheapness in some of these stocks.
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That's imposing a ceiling of sorts on any rally. But the good news is that at the end of next week, tax-loss related selling may abate dramatically.
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Some of the governors are going to challenge another 50 basis point (half a percentage point) reduction that many people would like. I think they'll be guarded in their commentary and that may be one of the catalysts for the market to correct.
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The whole atmosphere is not conducive to a drop in expectations, but if it does happen, we'll get a correction the market.
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I think it would be difficult for Kerry to prove that the tax cuts were not effective.
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It is another piece of good news in that it leaves the Fed in an unfettered position to exercise more discretion in monetary easing. Because the economy has displayed such weakness and inflation has been non-existent with the exception of energy-related prices, the short-term inflation number may be less relevant.
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The markets got a little premature declaring victory last week and the shorts rushed in to cover. Now enthusiasm has dissipated and the selling pressure is on. People are realizing that the war is going to be longer and more drawn out than anticipated.
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Enron is providing the counterforce right now. It's undermining a number of industries such as utilities, banks, insurance and energy companies.
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I do think that there are a group of investors that have changed their opinion about interest rates and that is extremely positive for the market. We clearly do better in a falling interest rate environment.
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I actually think that the markets will be stronger going into the FOMC meeting June 30 and the handoff to the Iraqi council, only because these things are certain now,
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I do think he's trying to pull a leadership role here a little more than being the economist, and that leadership is trying to get people upbeat.