Ned Riley
Ned Riley
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I think by the first quarter of next year you're going to see a much better profits picture and that's what the market's telling us here.
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Theoretically, the incumbent wants the economic recovery to coincide with the election, but really it's a coincidence that those years tend to be positive. I think it's more that there's a good feeling overall during that year -- everyone is promised the world and no one says anything bad to upset the markets.
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A lot of these stocks were much higher a year ago than they are today. Clearly, the bottom-fishing issue is important and real.
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It was a year of awakening for the new investor on Wall Street and it was a very quick and sudden reversal of fortunes for many. We ran the emotional gamut from total irrational thinking and perception to reality and capitulation. Last year's market did reinforce the notion that abuses and excesses are eventually corrected and eventually reach a level of overreaction -- and that's how the year ended.
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I think we'll probably get a brighter picture on retail sales for Christmas, which could (inspire) people a little bit and help the short term.
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I think what we have is a recognition by investors that there is some decent value at this price. But whether they have the intestinal fortitude to stay during further adverse times is still unanswered. Today, they seem to have rallied based on the expectation that there is cheapness in some of these stocks.
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I think it's wonderful -- the market doesn't want to go down. There are a lot of frustrated buyers out there that are waiting for a much larger correction, but they are being forced to chip away. ... With this market today, you just couldn't get the sellers out in force.
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It is another piece of good news in that it leaves the Fed in an unfettered position to exercise more discretion in monetary easing. Because the economy has displayed such weakness and inflation has been non-existent with the exception of energy-related prices, the short-term inflation number may be less relevant.
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People are joining the camp of easier money for a longer period of time. The Fed should be willing to provide any and all support.
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I think it would be difficult for Kerry to prove that the tax cuts were not effective.
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I think the story is going to be the same going forward. We're going to see the tech companies reporting well. But the high interest rates we've seen so far have undermined some of the financial stocks and drug stocks.
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People have been using a rotational strategy -- but eventually you'll have a peaceful coexistence between the two because the 'old economy' stocks will have very good relative earnings that people can attach to,
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Some of the governors are going to challenge another 50 basis point (half a percentage point) reduction that many people would like. I think they'll be guarded in their commentary and that may be one of the catalysts for the market to correct.
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Some of the negativity is lessening, but we've got to take small steps before we run as far as this type of investor is concerned. The retail investor is not usually the leader of the pack. This is not a group that's going to be waving the green flag in front of the bull and saying 'Let's go!'.