Ned Riley
Ned Riley
buy company cyclical earnings high level looking might next opportunity percent selling several trying visibility
We're looking at a company that's going to grow, I think, at about 14 percent over the next several years with, I might add, a lot of predictability and I think a lot of visibility and a high level of confidence, ... So with Merck at 31 times earnings now and down about 20 percent from its high, I think we're getting into an opportunity where it's a lot better than trying to buy a cyclical that's selling at 27 times earnings and where the visibility is a lot more questionable.
market might monday possible problems today
Today the market anticipated possible problems over the weekend. If nothing happens, we might have a better Monday than we've been having.
demand economy incredible market products reflect september skepticism tech trend
Today's market and the market in September reflect skepticism around the sustainability of this incredible trend in demand in the economy and tech products in particular, and also in profitability.
computer personal stimulus technology
This would be a short-term stimulus to personal computer manufacturers, semiconductors and the whole gamut of technology companies.
question
The question is what are the real earnings.
clearly exception flowing money strongest waiting
With the exception of the Dow, it (was) eerily quiet, waiting for Cisco's results. The Dow is clearly the strongest (today) and it's because there's still a lot of money flowing out of technology.
bear breed investors types
Unfortunately, ... we've got two types of investors right now in this market. We have got this new investor, the new breed that's brash, bold, aggressive, and very short-term oriented, who has not been through a real bear market.
analyze companies guilty market proven taken until
Unfortunately, the market has taken a 'shoot now, analyze later' attitude. These companies are guilty until proven innocent, and they need to come up with confessions or disclosures that prove there's nothing questionable.
category damage elevated katrina people
Unfortunately, people feel very passionately that with Rita, we may see the same kind of damage and destruction that Katrina brought, particularly with it now elevated to a category 5.
action bit bring insurance investors leaves levels others quick reflects role somebody sour stocks taken taste
We do have a little bit of a role reversal. The vulnerability is that (tech) stocks are priced at such levels that any disappointment leaves investors with a quick and sour taste in the mouth. Today's action reflects a little insurance being taken out that if somebody falters, it will bring the others down.
april assert names people quarter tech
We're at the end of the quarter and people are consolidating a little bit. April could look better if we can see some tech names assert leadership.
activity corporate economy few next unless
We're going to see more of the same for the next few weeks, unless something comes in that indicates a pick-up in activity in the economy or on the corporate level,
becoming commentary direct fed feeding interest last less low market negative neutral people talking
We're going to have more people talking about the Fed becoming less aggressive, which will be neutral or negative for the market because the market has been feeding off low interest rates. I don't think the Fed commentary is going to be as predictable and direct as the last meeting.
avoiding gossip looking
We're back to looking at the fundamentals and, at least temporarily, avoiding gossip and rumors.