Oscar Gonzalez
Oscar Gonzalez
continue door easing economy expect fed open pressures since
Since the economy is softening, I expect inflationary pressures to subside. The door is still open for the Fed to continue easing rates, as necessary.
easing fed leave policies possibly recent reverse slowing start tight trend wanting
Continuation of a slowing trend is likely, and it could put the Fed in a pretty tight spot, because it could leave it wanting to possibly reverse its recent policies and start easing rates.
additional benefit businesses cause corporate costs critical cutting delay further lean rising sluggish
Rising benefit costs are cutting into already lean corporate profits. This may cause businesses to further delay additional hiring, which is critical to boosting the sluggish economy.
crude energy front mean nobody prices record relief sees time trade
Record crude prices usually mean record trade gaps. Nobody sees relief on the energy front any time soon.
interest move percent somewhere
I would think the probability of a move (on interest rates) would be somewhere around the 40 percent range.
continue economic economy expect fact improve jobs rest suggest
Jobs are a lagging indicator, and other economic indicators suggest the economy is in fact on the mend. We still expect it will continue to improve through the rest of the year.
against confidence consumer decrease downside improvement improving including increase jobs protection slump solid spending suggest sustained
While improving consumer confidence probably suggests downside protection against a slump in spending, it does not suggest we will see spending take off. We still need a sustained improvement in the jobs market, including a significant decrease in unemployment with a solid increase in real wages.
ancient certainly economy emerging federal figures inflation last might reflect reserve rising simply six suggest terms worrying
Today's figures simply reflect an economy still emerging from a recession; there's certainly nothing here to suggest inflation rising from the ashes. In terms of impact, it might as well be ancient history, especially now. The Federal Reserve is back to worrying about where inflation will be in six months, not where it was last month.
growth looking percent rate somewhere
We are looking at a growth rate somewhere in between 6.5 percent and 7 percent at this point. I think it's really going to be up there.
finally good labor markets news occasional positive surprise
We're finally getting consistently good news on the labor markets and even an occasional positive surprise like today's report.
allow alone begin businesses earnings reach until
Until businesses feel a real need for more hands-until productivity alone won't allow them to reach their earnings goals-they won't begin hiring.
brink confidence consumer great possibly surprise
We are possibly on the brink of war, so it would have been a great surprise if consumer confidence hadn't fallen.
biggest blow consumers crushing decline employment factor growth job october report rise sharp shows single
If, as expected, the October employment report shows a sharp rise in unemployment and a sharp decline in job growth, it could be a crushing blow to confidence. Having a job is probably the single biggest factor in consumers having confidence.
control data err fed inflation keeping price recent side whether worry
I don't think recent price data suggests that inflation is dead. The Fed has to worry about whether or not it is keeping inflation under control and it would probably like to err on the side of caution.