Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
conclude consumer eventually factor federal fourth growth help housing monetary rate reserve sector slow spending tend
We still think that the growth rate will slow substantially in the fourth quarter, in part because the housing sector is softening which will tend to soften consumer spending as well. That is one factor that will probably help the Federal Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle.
claims close energy leading level months spike typical weekly
We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices.
definitely level looking modest previous remain revision
We did have a modest upward revision in the previous week's claims, but we remain under the psychologically important 400,000 level and that's definitely something that we've been looking for.
downward evidence fact fed interest might months raising rates rather sooner stop trend
The fact that (core inflation) has been on a downward trend for two months is more evidence that Fed policy-makers might stop raising interest rates sooner rather than later.